The Profit Margin: September 8, 2026
Statistic of the Week
Does your financial plan include sports gambling? According to a recent survey, 26% of Gen Z respondents said sports betting is a deliberate part of their overall financial strategy. That figure falls to 14% of Millennials, 6% of Gen Xers, and just 1% of Baby Boomers. Notably, 52% of Gen Z respondents said they have put money into sports betting accounts over the past year.
Global Perspective
Government bond yields continue to rise globally. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently crossed 4.8%, reaching its highest level in three years. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed to its highest level since 2011, while the British 10-year gilt rose above 5.2%, its highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996. Inflation concerns, stoked by the conflict with Iran and its impact on energy prices, have been a major driver of the move.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Consumer Credit
Thursday: Jobless Claims, PPI, Existing Home Sales
Friday: CPI, Consumer Sentiment
Commentary
As earnings season wound down, investors became increasingly focused on the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s “dual mandate”: the labor market and inflation. The conflict with Iran continues to fuel inflation concerns, while last Friday brought the August employment report. Needless to say, it was a bumpy week on Wall Street, with the major averages delivering mixed results. The DJIA slipped 0.27%, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, gaining 0.09%.1 The Nasdaq fared the best, rising 0.40%.2 Volatility also persisted in fixed income markets, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising 0.07% to close Friday at 4.79%.3
As hostilities resumed around the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices moved higher. While there has been considerable focus on the price of gasoline, diesel fuel may be the more important indicator for inflation throughout the economy. Diesel rose to a record $5.85 per gallon nationally, up 55% since the start of the war between the U.S. and Iran.4 Higher energy costs are also working their way into fertilizer, plastics, and chemicals.
The August employment report came in stronger than expected. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% (chart right).5 The July figure was also revised higher, from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000.6 Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of 75,000 jobs per month.7
This week, we will receive two key inflation readings: PPI and CPI. Both reports will likely influence the Fed’s rate decision later this month. Markets are currently pricing in a 64% chance of a 0.25% rate hike.8
Chart of the Week
The U3 unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, while the broader U6 measure, which includes underemployment, declined during the month.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
Bloomberg Opinion
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. MarketWatch.com
4. Fox Business
5. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. Barron’s
7. Investor’s Business Daily
8. MarketWatch.com
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