The Profit Margin: September 29, 2025
Statistic of the Week
Age 50 marks a crucial milestone for employees as they enter the later phase of their careers. Depending on which financial company’s information you look at, the average 401(k) balance for a 50-year-old varies widely, from $200,000 to $592,000. It is widely accepted that by this age, individuals should aim to have approximately six times their annual salary saved to stay “on track” for a secure retirement.
Global Perspective
For several years, Modelo Especial, produced in Mexico by Constellation Brands, held the position as America’s top-selling beer. However, recent data shows that Michelob Ultra, brewed by Anheuser-Busch, has overtaken the lead. Constellation Brands reported a decline in Modelo’s sales, particularly among Hispanic consumers.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: JOLTS, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM Services
Commentary
It was relatively quiet on Wall Street last week. All three major domestic equity indices pared recent gains. The DJIA fared the best, it retreated 0.15%.1 The S&P 500 fell 0.31%.2 And the Nasdaq, the year’s standout, logged the worst performance, dropping 0.65%.3 Since the Liberation Day market lows, the S&P 500 has rallied around 30%.4 A pause or mild correction should be expected. With most of the week’s economic data coming in better-than expected, Treasury yields rose. The 10-year Treasury finished Friday with a yield of 4.18%, up 0.05% from the week prior.5
The PCE Inflation report (see chart) report showed inflation continuing to climb yet remaining below levels that many would consider alarming remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Additionally, GDP for the second time was revised higher (from 3.3% to 3.8%)6 and initial jobless claims were well below estimates.7 Together, these data points paint a constructive picture. Investors viewed the combined data and reduced the odds of an October FOMC rate cut. We should note that while the odds of an October rate cut have gone down, investors still place the odds of a cut north of 80%.8
This week, investors will be monitoring both economic and political news. It is a heavy week for economic data releases, with all eyes focusing on Friday’s employment report. Analysts believe the U.S. economy added about 45,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.9 Wage growth appears to be cooling. If there is a shutdown, there will be no government reports of economic data.
Chart of the Week
The PCE Inflation Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, reported in-line with analyst estimates for the month of August. The headline rate was recorded at 2.7%, while the core rate, which omits food and energy prices, stood at 2.9%.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Statistic of the Week:
Investopedia
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. Bloomberg
4. Barron’s
5. MarketWatch.com
6. Bureau of Economic Analysis
7. Department of Labor
8. MarketWatch.com
9. MarketWatch.com