The Profit Margin: September 28, 2026

Statistic of the Week

Delaware’s appeal as a retirement destination extends beyond its coastline. According to Census Bureau estimates cited by Kiplinger, the state’s population age 65 and older has increased 23% since 2020 – the fastest growth rate among states. Favorable tax treatment adds to its appeal: Delaware exempts Social Security benefits from state income tax, while residents age 60 and older may exclude up to $12,500 annually in eligible pension and retirement income. The absence of a sales tax and relatively low property taxes further enhance its attraction for retirees.

Global Perspective

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit with President Trump in Washington produced an agreement on tariff reductions covering $30 billion of goods from each country. The two sides also established a bilateral dialogue on artificial intelligence, including its risks and benefits. Their trade truce was extended through January 10, providing additional time for broader negotiations. Both countries are expected to meet formally twice more this year.

Market Moving Events

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Wednesday: GDP Revision, Wholesale Inventories, Personal Income and Spending, PCE Price Index

Thursday: Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Friday: Employment Report, Factory Orders

Commentary

Rising bond yields failed to derail the equity rally last week, as all three major U.S. indices finished higher. The Nasdaq led with a 2.06% gain, followed by the S&P 500 at 1.21%.¹ The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from an interim three-month low to edge up 0.28%.² Conditions remained unsettled in fixed income markets: the 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 5.17%, up 17 basis points for the week, surging past the key level of 5.00%.³ The MOVE Index, which measures expected Treasury-market volatility, climbed roughly 30% during the week – its largest weekly increase since April 2025.⁴ By contrast, the VIX, its counterpart for the S&P 500, remained below its long-term average,⁵ highlighting the divergence in sentiment between stocks and bonds.

With the S&P 500 back in positive territory for September,⁶ the contrast between equity-market resilience and bond-market weakness has come into sharper focus. Analysts cite the AI infrastructure buildout and associated earnings growth as important supports for equities. The scale of that investment is substantial: a study published by Brookings projects spending averaging 3.63% of U.S. GDP annually from 2025 through 2032, exceeding the relative economic scale of the railroad boom.⁷

Persistent inflation and expectations for further Fed tightening have been key drivers of rising bond yields. This week’s August PCE inflation report and September employment report will provide important tests of that outlook, helping shape expectations through year-end. Scheduled remarks from several Fed officials could offer further insight into how policymakers are weighing inflation risks against the strength of the labor market.

Chart of the Week

Treasury yields have risen notably across maturities since the start of the third quarter, with the current curve (blue) sitting above the start of quarter (gold). Higher borrowing costs could weigh on spending, creating a headwind for economic growth.

Source Materials

Market Moving Events:

MarketWatch.com

Chart of the Week:

Clearnomics,
The Federal Reserve

Statistic of the Week:

Kiplinger

Global Perspective:

The Wall Street Journal

Commentary:

1. Bloomberg

2. Bloomberg, Investor’s Business Daily

3. MarketWatch.com

4. MarketWatch.com, London South East

5. MarketWatch.com

6. MarketWatch.com

7. Barron’s

Ventura Wealth Management is an independent, fee-based, SEC-registered investment adviser (RIA) headquartered in Yardley, Pennsylvania, providing fiduciary financial planning and investment management for corporate executives and professionals with company stock, RSUs, stock options, ESPPs, deferred compensation, and other equity-based compensation. Executives often ask, “Should I sell my RSUs when they vest?” “When should I exercise my stock options?” “Am I holding too much company stock?” “How are RSUs and stock options taxed?” “How can I diversify a concentrated stock position?” and “How should my company stock fit into my overall investment portfolio?” Ventura helps clients throughout Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Greater Philadelphia, and nationwide evaluate concentrated stock risk, restricted stock units (RSUs), incentive stock options (ISOs), nonqualified stock options (NSOs), employee stock purchase plans (ESPPs), 10b5-1 considerations, tax implications, diversification strategies, and retirement planning. Ventura’s team includes professionals holding credentials and advanced degrees such as CPWA®, CFP®, CFA®, CMT®, RICP®, FSCP®, CRLC, ACC, MBA, and a PhD in Economics, supporting a multidisciplinary approach to investment management and financial planning. Our fiduciary, team-based approach considers company equity alongside the client’s broader portfolio, tax situation, retirement accounts, cash-flow needs, estate plan, and long-term financial goals.