The Profit Margin: October 27, 2025
Statistic of the Week
For the first time in U.S. history, more adults are caring for an aging parent than for a preschool-aged child. A recent survey by AARP and S&P Global found that about half of working caregivers have had to adjust their work schedules because of caregiving duties. Among them, 32% have taken a leave of absence, while 27% have reduced their working hours.
Global Perspective
The Trump administration announced a 10% increase in tariffs for Canada in response to an ad campaign by the Province of Ontario that Administration officials said misrepresented comments from former President Ronald Reagan. Last Thursday, President Trump also threatened to suspend trade talks with Canada over airing of the ad. The ad also played on Friday night during the first game of the World Series.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Trade Balance*, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Decision
Thursday: Jobless Claims*, GDP*
Friday: Personal Income and Spending*, PCE Index*
*Denotes data unlikely to be released if federal government remains closed.
Commentary
U.S. equity markets extended their gains last week, with all three major indices finishing solidly higher. The week was capped with a strong rally on Friday when inflation data came in slightly below expectations. The Nasdaq once again led the way, advancing 2.31%,1 followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose 2.20%.2 The S&P 500 added 1.92% for the week.3 In fixed income markets, yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury edging up one basis point to close at 4.02%.4 While it is still early in earnings season, results so far have been generally positive. Several mega-cap technology companies are set to report this week, and their results could play a key role in shaping overall market direction.
Beyond corporate earnings, attention this week will turn to Federal Reserve policy and ongoing trade negotiations. With September’s CPI reading coming in slightly softer than expected (chart right),5 markets are widely expecting a rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting and see strong odds of another cut in December.6 Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference will be closely watched for guidance on the policy outlook. On the trade front, tensions between the U.S. and Canada flared late last week and over the weekend. Meanwhile, President Trump and China’s President Xi are scheduled to meet later in the week amid reports of a “preliminary consensus” toward a potential deal.7
Chart of the Week
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in September, though the increase was smaller than many economists expected. Both the headline and core inflation rates came in at an annual pace of 3.0%.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week: Harvard Business Review
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. Bloomberg
4. MarketWatch.com
5. Barron’s
6. Barron’s
7. MarketWatch.com