The Profit Margin: October 12, 2026
Statistic of the Week
Median U.S. family net worth rose 2% from 2022 to 2025 after adjusting for inflation, reaching approximately $216,000, according to the Federal Reserve. Beneath that gain, results varied considerably by income and age. Median net worth increased 31% among families in the top 10% of incomes, while declining among those in the bottom 40%. Families headed by someone aged 75 or older recorded a 37% increase in net worth, compared with a 23% decline for those under 35.
Global Perspective
The G7 nations announced plans to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel products from emergency reserves over four months, prioritizing diesel to ease pressure on energy markets. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that persistently high energy prices and record public debt pose growing risks to the global economy. She also noted that the AI infrastructure boom is adding to energy demand and inflationary pressures.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
Wednesday: CPI, Beige Book
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, PPI
Friday: Industrial Production, Import Prices
Commentary
U.S. equities advanced last week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs before finishing below their peaks.1 All three major indices posted weekly gains, while Treasury yields eased by week’s end. The S&P 500 led the advance, rising 1.15%, followed by the DJIA with a gain of 0.93%.2 The technology-heavy Nasdaq added 0.64%, extending its winning streak to four consecutive weeks.3 Yields dropped slightly on the week. The 10-year Treasury closed Friday with a yield of 5.24%, down 0.05% from the week prior.4
The week ahead will likely be dominated by updated inflation data and the start of the third-quarter earnings season. September’s CPI and PPI reports are due Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Forecasts point to consumer inflation of approximately 3.7% year-over-year, with further monthly increases in both consumer and producer prices.5 Elevated diesel prices remain a particular concern. President Trump announced an agreement to bring Russian diesel supplies to U.S. and global markets, while G7 members committed to a coordinated release from emergency reserves (see “Global Perspective”).
Major banks will usher in the third-quarter earnings season this week. With persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs weighing on the economic outlook, investors are looking to corporate profits to support equity valuations. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise nearly 30% year-over-year, which would mark the third consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 25%.6 The gains are expected to extend across the market, with all 11 sectors projected to report year-over-year earnings growth.7
Chart of the Week
Consumer sentiment (blue line) remained near historic lows, with the preliminary October reading falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead edged up to 4.7% from the previous reading of 4.6%.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
University of Michigan
Statistic of the Week:
The Wall Street Journal
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Barron’s
2. Bloomberg
3. Bloomberg, Investor’s Business Daily
4. MarketWatch.com
5. MarketWatch.com
6. MarketWatch.com
7. Barron’s
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