The Profit Margin: November 24, 2025
Statistic of the Week
Just under 82 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more for Thanksgiving this year, according to AAA—about 1.6 million more than in 2024. Roughly 73 million will travel by car. Car travel is being aided by gasoline prices that are approximately level year over year.
Global Perspective
Over the past six weeks, more than $1.2 trillion in value has evaporated from the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin, the largest and most influential cryptocurrency, has fallen from its October peak of about $126,000 to roughly $87,000 currently.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: PPI (September), Retail Sales (September), Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales
Wednesday: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders (September)
Thursday: U.S. Markets Closed
Friday: U.S. Markets Close at 1PM EST
Commentary
It was a volatile week in the financial markets. All three major U.S. equity indices declined, with the DJIA and S&P 500 posting their worst weekly performances since October, each down just under 2%.1 The tech-heavy Nasdaq fared worse, falling about 2.75% and marking its third consecutive weekly decline.2 Investors sought safety in bonds as yields moved lower; the 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.08% to end Friday at 4.07%.3
The S&P 500 and DJIA had each posted four straight declines before closing higher on Friday.4 Notably, investors have been reallocating into traditionally more conservative market sectors – specifically healthcare and consumer staples. Following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, market expectations for a December rate cut jumped sharply—from 39% to more than 70%.5 Softer September labor data likely contributed to Williams’ more dovish tone.
While the labor market added roughly twice as many jobs as economists anticipated (119,000), job gains for July and August were revised lower.6 The September unemployment rate (chart right) also came in slightly above expectations. Wage growth disappointed as well: average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.7% year over year, below forecasts of 0.3% and 3.8%, respectively.7
In the shortened holiday week, there are several key reports due. Retail sales will be closely monitored to determine how the consumer is fairing heading into the critical holiday shopping season.
Chart of the Week
The delayed September employment report showed the U-3 unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021. The October employment report will be released with the November employment report on December 16.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
AAA
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg, MarketWatch.com
2. Bloomberg, Investor’s Business Daily
3. MarketWatch.com
4. MarketWatch.com
5. Investopedia.com
6. Investor’s Business Daily, Barron’s
7. CNBC.com