The Profit Margin: November 17, 2025
Statistic of the Week
The U.S. Mint in Philadelphia struck America’s last penny on November 12th, ending a production run that began in 1793. According to the Mint’s annual report, each penny cost 3.69 cents to produce. A shortage of pennies could pose challenges for retailers, as 10 states still prohibit rounding transactions to the nearest nickel. However, 300 billion pennies remain in circulation.
Global Perspective
The Trump administration rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products as inflation concerns grow for American consumers. Staples such as coffee, bananas, orange juice, and beef had their tariffs removed as of last Thursday at midnight. Potential trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, and El Salvador could further ease inflationary pressures on food.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Wednesday: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Trade Deficit
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Nonfarm Payrolls (September)
Friday: Consumer Sentiment
Commentary
At first glance, the weekly moves in the major U.S. equity indices suggest a quiet week. It was anything but. The DJIA led with a 0.43% gain,1 while the S&P 500 edged up 0.08%.2 The Nasdaq slipped 0.45% for the week but broke a three-day losing streak on Friday.3 Volatility (see chart) has been climbing recently.4 Bond yields moved higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.03%, closing Friday at 4.15%.5
The longest federal government shutdown on record ended last week after 43 days. The interim agreement keeps the government funded through January 30th. This allows for the release of long-delayed economic data. On Thursday, the September nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release. However, it appears that the October labor and inflation reports will not be issued.6 The next CPI reading, covering November data, is set for December 10th, coinciding with the upcoming FOMC decision.7 Based on alternative data sources, the economy does not appear to have deteriorated significantly during the shutdown. Meanwhile, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate rising concern about inflationary pressures. As a result, the odds of a December rate cut have fallen to roughly even.8
While earnings season has slowed down, all eyes will be focused on Nvidia’s report due on Wednesday. Additionally, we will be listening to commentary by several Fed officials and analyzing labor market data.
Chart of the Week
The VIX has been climbing in recent weeks, closing Friday at 19.8. That’s slightly above its long-term average of 18.3, indicating elevated—but not alarming—volatility.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
CBOE
Statistic of the Week:
USA Today, Investor’s Business Daily
Global Perspective:
Reuters
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. Bloomberg, MarketWatch.com
4. CBOE
5. MarketWatch.com
6. Investor’s Business Daily
7. Investor’s Business Daily
8. Barron’s