The Profit Margin: March 30, 2026
Statistic of the Week
The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.38% last week, its highest level in six months and the largest weekly increase in over a year. Much of the upward pressure on rates is tied to inflation worries. Despite the recent move higher, rates remain below where they were this time last year, when they averaged 6.65%.
Global Perspective
The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, indicated in recent remarks that the ECB is “prepared, if appropriate, to make changes to policy at any meeting.” Markets interpreted the comments as a signal that rate hikes are being considered. This shift in tone is largely attributed to rising inflation concerns stemming from the Iranian conflict.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Retail Sales (February), ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Trade Deficit
Friday: Employment Report, VWM and U.S. Markets Closed
Commentary
All three major domestic equity indices posted negative weekly returns for five consecutive weeks as the conflict with Iran enters its second month.1 Last week, the DJIA declined 0.90%, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.23%,2 with much of the weakness occurring on Friday. Both the DJIA and Nasdaq are now in correction territory (a decline of 10% or more from a recent peak),3 while the S&P 500 has held above that threshold. Fixed income has provided diversified investors limited relief, as rising oil prices have reinforced concerns that inflation could remain elevated for some time. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.44%, up 0.05% from the prior week.4
While oil and gasoline prices have captured much of the headlines, other economic impacts of the conflict are equally important. Costs for key exports such as fertilizer, helium, and aluminum have risen notably.5 Additionally, the involvement of the Houthis has raised concerns about potential disruptions to another critical shipping route. Damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region could also delay a return to “normal” conditions, even in the event of a ceasefire.6
While markets will be closed on Friday due to the Easter holiday, the March employment report will still be released. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain relatively stable around 4.4%,7 which would be a constructive outcome for the Federal Reserve as the Fed seeks to avoid managing both rising unemployment and elevated inflation simultaneously. Markets are increasingly anticipating a rate hike in the second half of the year.8
Chart of the Week
Brent crude prices have risen approximately 36% since the start of the Iranian conflict. Now, investors are factoring in the potential for a prolonged disruption. Additionally, damage to infrastructure could delay a return to normal market conditions, even in the event of a ceasefire.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
LSEG
Statistic of the Week:
Realtor.com
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Investor’s Business Daily
2. Bloomberg
3. Barron’s
4. MarketWatch.com
5. MarketWatch.com
6. MarketWatch.com
7. Investor’s Business Daily
8. Forbes