The Profit Margin: July 13, 2026
Statistic of the Week
In a recent poll of 5,000 participants in March and April, 51% of American adults responded that they feel financially “conflicted.” In this category, they feel a mix of stability and uncertainty – a financial gray area. Only 16% said that they were in a state of confidence regarding their finances, while 32% said they were financially stressed. About 70% of households earning over $135,000 said they are not financially fulfilled.
Global Perspective
A weaker yen and the government’s announcement of a 14-year, $2.3 trillion investment plan, contributed to a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields. With Japan’s public debt now exceeding 200% of GDP, the yield on the 10-year government bond climbed to 2.9%, its highest level since 1996.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: CPI
Wednesday: PPI, Empire State Manufacturing, Beige Book
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Pending Home Sales
Friday: Housing Starts, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment
Commentary
Broad domestic equity markets delivered mixed results last week. Renewed hostilities involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz contributed to modest weakness in the DJIA, which declined 0.50%.1 Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted a second consecutive weekly gain, rising 1.23% and 1.74%, respectively.2 Despite the advances, both indices remain within clearly defined trading ranges. Diversification across equity classes has continued to work well in 2026. In fixed income markets, yields moved higher, with the 10-year Treasury rising 0.07% to close Friday at 4.56%.3
Inflation and Federal Reserve policy will likely take center stage in the week ahead. The CPI report will be released on Tuesday, followed by the PPI report on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to have eased slightly from May to June as energy prices fell, with analysts forecasting an annual inflation rate of 3.8%.4 Producer prices are also expected to have declined modestly during the month.5 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for the first time since becoming Chair. Investors will be paying particular attention to his comments on the Fed’s newly created task forces, balance sheet policy, and the future path of interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in approximately a 70% probability of a rate hike in September.6
Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week. While bank earnings will play their traditional role in setting the tone, Taiwan Semiconductor will also report results. Investors will be watching closely for indications of semiconductor demand in the AI buildout.
Chart of the Week
Another indicator of the “no hire, no fire” labor market is the stability of initial jobless claims. The most recent reading came in at 215,000, while the four-week moving average stands at approximately 219,000
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
The Wall Street Journal
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. MarketWatch.com
4. MarketWatch.com
5. MarketWatch.com
6. MarketWatch.com