The Profit Margin: January 26, 2026
Statistic of the Week
Just under half of Americans planning to purchase a home in the next 12 months say they expect to use artificial intelligence to assist in their search. Among prospective buyers, approximately 48% plan to use savings to fund a down payment, while others expect to work a second job or draw from retirement accounts.
Global Perspective
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.3%. The organization noted that the global economy is showing “notable resilience” despite uncertainty surrounding trade tensions and tariffs. The IMF also highlighted investment in artificial intelligence as a key driver of growth.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Trade Deficit, Productivity, Factory Orders
Friday: PPI
Commentary
There is little debate that markets remain highly “headline-driven.” Concerns surrounding the Trump administration’s push to acquire Greenland triggered a sharp sell-off early in the week, only for markets to reverse course after a framework deal was established. While equities rebounded from their lows, the recovery was not sufficient to erase weekly losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 declined 0.35%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.06%.1 Volatility, as measured by the VIX (see chart), initially spiked before settling back to more typical levels. Treasury yields followed a similar pattern—surging on Tuesday before reversing lower and ultimately finishing the week unchanged.2 The 10-year Treasury ended the week at a yield of 4.23%.3
While markets are assigning nearly a 0% probability to a rate change at this week’s FOMC meeting,4 the event remains highly anticipated and could still influence market sentiment. Chair Powell is expected to face questions on two key issues: the Department of Justice’s criminal investigation and whether he intends to remain at the Federal Reserve after his term as chair concludes. On Friday, markets will also receive the December PPI inflation report.
Just as economic data is beginning to “catch up” after the last government shutdown, it appears the risk of another is rising. While the House passed a spending bill, the Senate may not follow suit in protest of this weekend’s events in Minneapolis. On Polymarket, the odds of a January 31st government shutdown jumped from 9% to 74%.5
Chart of the Week
The Volatility Index (VIX) cooled in the latter part of last week after an initial spike driven by geopolitical concerns. It closed Friday at 16.1, below its historical average.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
Investor’s Business Daily
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Investor’s Business Daily
3. MarketWatch.com
4. CME Group
5. Bianco Research