The Profit Margin: January 20, 2026
Statistic of the Week
For the anglers in our clientele: a 536-pound bluefin tuna sold for a record $3.24 million at the first auction of 2026 at Tokyo’s Toyosu fish market. The winning bid came from Kiyomura Corporation, which operates a chain of sushi restaurants. The company’s owner, Kiyoshi Kimura, surpassed his previous record of $2.1 million for a single tuna, set in 2019.
Global Perspective
China’s export economy has remained resilient despite ongoing trade tensions with the United States. In 2025, China recorded a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, surpassing its previous annual record by November. While exports to the U.S. declined by 20%, shipments to Africa increased 26%, exports to ASEAN countries rose 13%, and exports to the European Union climbed 8%. Exports to the United States accounted for just 11% of total trade—the lowest share since the 1990s.
Market Moving Events
Wednesday: Pending Home Sales
Thursday: Jobless Claims, GDP (3Q Revision), PCE Index, Personal Income and Spending
Friday: Consumer Sentiment
Commentary
A flurry of domestic political and international geopolitical developments led to a volatile week on Wall Street, with all three major domestic equity indices retreating. The Nasdaq fared the worst, declining 0.66%.1 The S&P 500 fell 0.38%.2 And the Dow Jones Industrial Average, so far the leader in 2026, held up best, dipping just 0.29%.3 Volatility in the fixed income markets mirrored that of equities. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 0.05% on the week, ending Friday at 4.23%.4
Several political and geopolitical developments last week remain unresolved and could influence broader markets. Major banks kicked off earnings season with generally positive results, though financial stocks saw increased volatility after the administration proposed a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates.5 A Department of Justice inquiry into the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell renewed debate over central bank independence. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a 10% tariff, effective February 1st, on European countries supporting Denmark’s ownership of Greenland, prompting the European Union to pause progress on a new trade agreement with the U.S.6
On the economic front, we received both the CPI and PPI inflation reports. The CPI came in slightly softer than expected (chart right), with core inflation at 2.6%, marking a 12-month low.7 In contrast, PPI exceeded expectations, with the core reading rising to 3.5%—the highest level since March 2025.8 Looking ahead, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, is scheduled for release on Thursday.
Chart of the Week
The Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation of 2.7% in December, while core inflation—which excludes food and energy—came in at 2.6%. Economists had expected both the headline and core readings to register at 2.7%.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
Robb Report
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. Bloomberg
4. MarketWatch.com
5. CNBC.com
6. Bloomberg News, MarketWatch.com
7. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Investors’ Business Daily
8. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC.com