The Profit Margin: February 28, 2022
Statistic of the Week
5.7 million Americans lost approximately $5.8 billion to fraud in 2021, an increase of $2.4 billion from the year prior. This represented a 70% year-over-year jump. In the past, scam efforts had primarily targeted older Americans. New data is showing younger people becoming increasingly susceptible.
Global Perspective
Since February 16th, Russia’s 116 billionaires have lost approximately $90 billion of their collective net worth. On Thursday, when the Russian Moex index lost about 33% of its value, the billionaires saw about $39 billion disappear. On that day, 11 of the billionaires lost $1 billion or more – each.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending Wednesday: Beige Books Thursday: Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Factory Orders Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Commentary
In an extremely volatile week dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, asset classes saw significant price swings. US equity markets finished with a positive bias. While the DJIA finished slightly down (-0.06%), both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were able to log gains.1 The S&P 500 notched a return of 0.82% as the Nasdaq finished up 1.08%.2 On Thursday, the day the invasion began, the Nasdaq swung from being down -3.3% to finishing up 3.4%.3 In some years, that could be the entire trading range – all experienced in one day… Yields moved slightly higher on the week; the 10-year Treasury finished Friday with a yield of 1.98%.4 The implications of the conflict on global energy markets has been a central topic for potential sanctions. While West Texas oil traded over $100/barrel on Thursday, prices finished down at $93/barrel.5 (Brent hit $105/barrel – the highest level since 2014).6 And critically, European natural gas initially spiked 60% before moving lower.7 The conflict premium on energy and food (Ukraine is widely considered “Europe’s breadbasket”)8 is complicating next steps for the Federal Reserve. In tense periods, its tempting to make drastic portfolio adjustments. Looking back over market history, when geopolitical shock has caused a market correction and a recession, markets have fallen 11% a year later. But, with no recession, they have risen 11% a year later.9 At this time, our proprietary indicators are signaling continued US expansion. – Dan McElwee, CFP, ® MBA
Chart of the Week
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Sources
Statistic of the Week:
Money Magazine
Global Perspective:
Forbes
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Haver, Clearnomics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Commentary:1.Bloomberg2.Bloomberg3. Barron’s / Investor’s Business Daily4.Bloomberg5. Barron’s6. Barron’s7. Barron’s8. The Wall Street Journal9. Barron’s