The Profit Margin: February 22, 2022
Statistic of the Week
How many weddings have you been invited to this year? There are approximately 2.5 million wedding scheduled for 2022, the most since 1984. The majority are rescheduled events from ’20 and ’21; many are from couples who became engaged during the pandemic.
Global Perspective
Yesterday, Vladimir Putin recognized the “breakaway people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk – both in eastern Ukraine. He also said that he would be deploying Russian troops into the regions to serve as peacekeepers. The move will undoubtedly make diplomacy more challenging and violence more likely.
Market Moving Events
Monday: US Markets Closed Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence Thursday: Jobless Claims, GDP, New Home Sales Friday: Personal Income and Spending, PCE Inflation, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales
Commentary
Russian aggression coupled with speculation over Federal Reserve policy pushed major US equity averages lower last week. The DJIA fared the worst of the three, retreating -1.90%.1 The Nasdaq fell -1.76%,2 while the S&P 500 dipped -1.58%.3 The Dow and S&P 500 have had negative weekly performance in five of the past seven weeks.4 Bonds and gold rallied as investors shifted to “safe” assets. The 10-year Treasury yield came down from a recent high of 2.06% to finish Friday with a yield of 1.93%.5 Gold moved 3.4% higher on the week.6 The escalation between Russia and Ukraine has caused investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will be more dovish in their upcoming meeting than expected. Futures markets point to approximately an 80% chance that the Fed raises interest rates only 0.25% in their March meeting instead of 0.50%.7 (It should be noted that a fair number of Federal Reserve officials spoke last week, and their comments were on the hawkish side).8 The next Fed meeting is on March 15-16 and will be closely watched for comments on inflation and policy. A recent national survey showed 8 in 10 respondents expecting inflation to rise from here, and about half say that inflation has been causing hardship.9 The week ahead is likely to be dominated by more of the same. We expect heightened volatility as the world looks for resolution in eastern Europe. – Dan McElwee, CFP, ® MBA
Chart of the Week
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Sources
Statistic of the Week:
The New York Times
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Haver, The Conference Board
Commentary:1.Bloomberg2.Bloomberg3.Bloomberg4. Barron’s5.Bloomberg6. Barron’s7. Barron’s8. Barron’s9.Barron’s