The Profit Margin: February 2, 2026
Statistic of the Week
Early in the year is a good time to review your net worth if you’re still working toward retirement. Forbes, using Federal Reserve data, reports median household net worth of $39,000 for those under 35, $135,600 for ages 35–45, and $247,200 overall. Each age group has distinct financial planning priorities to help protect and grow wealth. Talk to your wealth advisor.
Global Perspective
There is speculation that the U.S. and Japan may be considering a coordinated intervention to support the yen, which has shown notable weakness. These rumors prompted a sharp move higher in the currency. U.S. officials are reportedly concerned that strains in Japan’s currency and bond markets could have spillover effects on U.S. Treasury markets. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has denied that any intervention is planned.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: JOLTS, ISM Services
Wednesday: ADP Employment
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Employment Report, Consumer Sentiment
Commentary
Volatility has remained a defining feature of markets thus far in 2026. While proponents of the January Barometer may find some reassurance—historically, when January posts a positive return, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of 16.2% since 1945 versus 9.3% in flat or negative Januarys1—volatility across asset classes has been notable. All three major equity indices are positive year to date, though weekly performance was mixed. The S&P 500 rose 0.34%, while the Nasdaq and DJIA declined 0.17% and 0.42%, respectively.2 Precious metals experienced extreme volatility on Friday, with silver plunging 31% in a single session. Even after that drop, silver remains up 170% year over year.3 Bond markets echoed last week’s pattern, with sharp intraweek moves but little net change. The 10-year Treasury ended Friday unchanged at a yield of 4.24%.4
The potential for a government shutdown—though now expected to be brief—along with geopolitical tensions, corporate earnings, and the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair were key themes last week. Markets initially reacted negatively to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who was viewed as the most hawkish of the leading candidates. However, Warsh has indicated support for further rate cuts, citing AI-driven productivity gains and the benefits of lower rates for small- and mid-sized businesses.5 Warsh is not an overly controversial choice. Looking ahead, the week features several major earnings reports and Friday’s employment data. Economists expect job growth of approximately 80,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.6
Chart of the Week
There has been significant discussion around recent dollar weakness, but it’s important to note that the dollar is trading near levels seen multiple times over the past decade. (Red horizontal lines).
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Federal Reserve, ICE
Statistic of the Week:
Forbes
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. MarketWatch.com
2. Bloomberg
3. Barron’s
4. MarketWatch.com
5. Barron’s
6. Investor’s Business Daily