The Profit Margin: December 22, 2025
Statistic of the Week
Is your pet on Santa’s “nice list” this year? Nearly 79% of pet owners plan to buy their furry companions a holiday gift. Some even expect to spend more on their pets than on people—including 20% of Millennials and 19% of Gen Z. In total, 94 million U.S. households have at least one pet.
Global Perspective
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate last week, pushing rates to a 30-year high. The new rate of 0.75% was in line with analyst expectations. The central bank also signaled that additional rate hikes are likely. This marked the Bank of Japan’s first rate increase since January, as it continues efforts to achieve sustained 2% wage growth and inflation.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: GDP, Durable Goods, Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Jobless Claims, U.S. Markets and VWM Close at 1PM EST
Thursday: U.S. Markets and VWM Closed
Commentary
A bumpy week on Wall Street ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounding from early losses to finish the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unable to turn the corner, ending the week down 0.67% and remaining the year’s laggard.1 The S&P 500 posted a modest gain of 0.10%, while the Nasdaq, buoyed by a 1.3% rally on Friday, finished the week up 0.48%.2 Softer-than-expected labor market data pushed yields lower over the week. The 10-year Treasury ended Friday at 4.14%, down 0.04% from the week prior.3
Last week, we received the CPI inflation figures and the November employment report. Inflation surprised to the downside, with headline year-over-year CPI coming in at 2.7% and core inflation at 2.6% – well below analyst expectations.4 Meanwhile, the U-3 unemployment rate (chart right) surprised to the upside, rising to 4.6%.5 Some analysts have questioned the accuracy and completeness of both data sets due to the federal government shutdown.6 However, if the data proves reliable, the combination of cooling inflation and a weakening labor market could open the door for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Looking ahead, the upcoming week will be light on economic releases and shortened by the Christmas holiday. The most notable data point will be the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to be 3.2% compared with the second-quarter GDP growth rate of 3.8%.7
This will be our last edition of The Profit Margin for 2025. Happy holidays and have a safe and healthy New Year!
Chart of the Week
The unemployment rate edged higher in November, rising to 4.6%. This compares with a 4.4% reading in September and came in above the 4.5% rate economists had expected.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
Kiplinger’s
Global Perspective:
Reuter’s
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg
3. MarketWatch.com
4. Bureau of Labor Statistics / MarketWatch.com
5. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. Investor’s Business Daily
7. MarketWatch.com