The Profit Margin: August 4, 2025
Statistic of the Week
Bankrate.com has published its ranking of the top states for retirement. Their evaluation criteria assign the greatest weightings to affordability (28%), weather (18%), safety (17%), and health care (16%). Based on these factors, New Hampshire, Maine, Wyoming, Vermont, and Idaho emerged as the leading states. Louisiana ranked last among all 50 states.
Global Perspective
The International Monetary Fund recently updated its global GDP forecast. For 2025, the IMF now projects economic growth at 3.0%, an increase from the earlier estimate of 2.8%. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has assisted numerous countries in mitigating the full impact of the rise in American tariffs.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM Services
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Productivity and Labor Costs, Consumer Credit
Commentary
Most of last week’s trading remained subdued until Friday’s release of the nonfarm payrolls report. The announcement that the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in June,1 with just 4,000 new jobs outside the healthcare and education sectors,2 coupled with downward revisions totaling 258,000 jobs for April and May,3 triggered broad market declines. All three major domestic indices ended the week lower. The DJIA experienced the steepest drop, falling 2.92%,4 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which had reached record highs midweek,5 declined by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively.6 The Nasdaq’s performance on Friday marked its worst single-day loss since April.7 Fixed income yields fell as investors sought safety, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining 19 basis points to close at 4.23% on Friday.8 The probability of an FOMC rate cut in September increased significantly.9
Matters were compounded when President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, claiming that the disappointing payrolls figures had been “rigged.”10 Many economists agree that uncertainty over tariff policy is causing a slowing in corporate decision making, including hiring new employees. Tariffs were also on the radar last week. Rates for some items from Brazil were raised to 50%, Switzerland to 39%, and Canada to 35%.11 This week’s Factory Orders and ISM Services reports will be key as earning’s season continues.
Chart of the Week
The U.S. economy added an estimated 73,000 jobs in the month of July, fewer than 110,000 jobs analysts forecasted. Figures for May and June were revised lower by a notable margin.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week: Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statistic of the Week:
Bankrate.com
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. Barron’s
3. Investor’s Business Daily
4. Bloomberg
5. Investor’s Business Daily
6. Bloomberg
7. Investor’s Business Daily
8. MarketWatch.com
9. MarketWatch.com
10. The New York Times
11. Barron’s