The Profit Margin: April 27, 2026
Statistic of the Week
Following the Supreme Court’s ruling that the IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional, businesses are beginning to file claims for an estimated $166 billion in refunds. The process will be administered by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which has established an online portal to handle submissions. Processing times are expected to range from 60 to 90 days. It is estimated that the average household incurred approximately $1,700 in tariff-related costs.
Global Perspective
Inflation in the United Kingdom rose from an annualized rate of 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March, driven largely by higher energy costs. Through February, gas and diesel prices had been down 4.6% year-over-year, but that trend reversed in March, with prices rising 4.9% year-over-year. As a result, markets are increasingly expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates at some point in 2026.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Durable Goods, Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Decision, Fed Chair Press Conference
Thursday: Jobless Claims, GDP, PCE, Leading Indicators
Friday: ISM Manufacturing
Commentary
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to move higher last week, while the DJIA edged lower. The Nasdaq once again led performance, rising 1.50%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.55%.1 Over the past four weeks, the S&P 500 has advanced approximately 12.5%, marking its strongest move on record over that time frame.2 Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs on Friday.3 Oil prices remain elevated near $95 per barrel,4 with trading continuing to be volatile and heavily influenced by headlines surrounding the conflict with Iran. And fixed income markets were relatively stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 0.06% on the week to close at 4.31%.5
Earnings season is in full swing, and results have been solid thus far. Among companies that have reported, earnings are up approximately 16% year-over-year, an improvement from the 13% growth rate seen in the fourth quarter.6 Notably, 81% of companies have exceeded estimates, above the recent average beat rate of 78%.7 However, market breadth has been more limited. While the S&P 500 finished the week higher, only 188 of its component companies posted positive returns.8 In many cases, companies are beating consensus estimates but falling short of higher “whisper” expectations, suggesting elevated investor expectations remain a headwind.
Earnings reports will continue this week alongside several key economic data releases. The FOMC will also announce its latest policy decision (no change expected), followed by a press conference where Chair Powell is expected to address his future role at the Federal Reserve.
Chart of the Week
U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March and were up 4.0% year-over-year, marking the fastest pace of growth in three years. The increase was driven largely by higher gasoline prices, with income tax refunds also contributing to the strength in consumer spending.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
Census Bureau, AP
Statistic of the Week:
Yahoo! Finance
Global Perspective:
The Economist
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Investor’s Business Daily
3. Investor’s Business Daily
4. MarketWatch.com
5. MarketWatch.com
6. Barron’s
7. Barron’s
8. Barron’s