The Profit Margin: April 20, 2026
Statistic of the Week
Tax season is now behind us, with refunds increasing by an average of 11% this year. The typical refund came in at approximately $3,571. Despite higher refunds, the process remains complex, with Americans collectively spending more than seven billion hours complying with IRS rules – equivalent to roughly 3.4 million full-time workers dedicated solely to filing tax returns.
Global Perspective
The International Monetary Fund cited the conflict with Iran as a key factor in lowering its global growth outlook for 2026. The IMF now expects global growth of approximately 3.1%, down from the prior estimate of 3.3%, reflecting the economic impact of rising energy prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Importantly, the IMF noted that absent the conflict, the outlook for global growth had been improving. This is the lowest global growth forecast since the pandemic.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Pending Home Sales
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Consumer Sentiment
Commentary
While no formal agreement has been reached to end the conflict with Iran, a two-week ceasefire in Lebanon led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the U.S. maintains that its blockade remains in place, the development prompted significant movement across asset classes. Domestic equity markets moved from negative to positive year-to-date performance, with all three major indices posting strong gains. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each reached multiple all-time closing highs, with the Nasdaq on its longest winning streak since 1992 and the S&P 500 surpassing 7,100 for the first time.1 For the week, the Nasdaq rose 6.34%, the S&P 500 gained 4.54%, and the DJIA advanced 3.19%.2 Fixed income yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury falling 0.09% to close at 4.25%.3 Oil prices also moved sharply lower, declining approximately 13% on the week, including an 11% drop on Friday.4
Geopolitical developments are likely to remain front and center as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set to resume on Monday.5 At the same time, earnings season is beginning to accelerate, with corporate results continuing to play a key role in market performance. Over half of S&P 500 companies have recently raised guidance, and if expectations are met, this would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.6 Investors will also be watching Senate Banking Committee hearings related to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. His personal financial disclosures, along with broader scrutiny surrounding the Federal Reserve, could make for a more eventful confirmation process and add another layer of uncertainty for markets.
Chart of the Week
Some encouraging news on the inflation front: the Producer Price Index rose less than expected in March. The headline figure increased 0.5% for the month, below the 1.1% forecast. The reading shows year-over-year inflation at 4.02%.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
Bureau of Economic Analysis, CNBC.com
Statistic of the Week:
Barron’s
Global Perspective:
The Economist, Barron’s
Commentary:
1. MarketWatch.com, CNBC.com
2. Bloomberg
3. MarketWatch.com
4. Investor’s Business Daily
5. Politico.com
6. Barron’s