The Profit Margin: April 13, 2026
Statistic of the Week
There is ongoing debate about the broader impact of artificial intelligence on employment, though there is clearer evidence that technology workers are bearing the brunt of the disruption. A study by Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that approximately 100,000 jobs have been lost to AI over the past three years, with nearly 89,000 of those in the technology sector. In 2026 alone, the tech sector has shed just under 53,000 jobs to date.
Global Perspective
The announcement of a ceasefire in the Iran conflict contributed to continued volatility in oil markets last week. Brent crude fell from around $110 per barrel early in the week to $90, before rebounding to close at $95.20. West Texas Intermediate finished the week at $96.57 per barrel. Markets will be closely watching how the announced blockade of Iranian ports impacts energy prices when trading resumes Sunday evening.
Market Moving Events
Tuesday: PPI
Wednesday: Import Prices, Empire State Manufacturing, Beige Book
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Commentary
The announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict supported a continued rebound in domestic equity markets. All three major indices finished the week solidly higher. The Nasdaq led performance, rallying 4.68%, though it remains the year-to-date laggard, down 1.46%.1 The S&P 500 rose 3.56%, marking its longest winning streak since October and its strongest weekly gain since November.2 The DJIA, which remains the year-to-date leader, gained 3.04% on the week.3 Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed above their 50-day moving averages,4 a constructive technical development. Fixed income markets were relatively stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending the week at 4.34%.5
Earnings season begins this week, with several major banks set to report. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in energy prices, earnings estimates have continued to move higher.6 Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow approximately 13% in the first quarter. If realized, this would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.7
Markets will likely spend much of Monday digesting the breakdown of the initial round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and announcement of a blockade of Iranian ports. The conflict’s impact on inflation remains a central concern, as last week’s CPI (chart right) and PCE readings both showed prices accelerating from already elevated levels. This week’s PPI report, along with earnings releases, Fed commentary, and ongoing geopolitical developments, will likely be key drivers of market activity.
Chart of the Week
Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, driven largely by higher energy costs following the conflict with Iran. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% during the month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall rise in inflation.
Source Materials
Market Moving Events:
MarketWatch.com
Chart of the Week:
Clearnomics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC.com
Statistic of the Week:
Investor’s Business Daily
Global Perspective:
The Economist, MarketWatch.com
Commentary:
1. Bloomberg
2. Bloomberg, CNBC.com, MarketWatch.com
3. Bloomberg
4. Investor’s Business Daily
5. MarketWatch.com
6. MarketWatch.com
7. MarketWatch.com