10 Things You Need to Know: April 1, 2022

Key data releases this week include: factory orders (Mon), ISM Services (Tue), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), and consumer credit (Thu).

Haver
April 1, 2022
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 431,00 (4.6% y/y) during March following a 750,000 February increase. A 490,000 March gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 504,000 January increase was revised from 481,000. Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.4% last month (5.6% y/y) after increasing 0.1% in February, revised from no change.

Haver
March 29, 2022
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.6% (18.2% y/y) during January following a 1.3% December rise, revised from 1.2%. It was the largest monthly increase since last June. The home price series dates back to January 1991.

Haver
March 30, 2022
U.S. real GDP growth in 2021 Q4 was revised down to 6.9% q/q (SAAR) in the third estimate from 7.0% in the second estimate. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a small upward revision to 7.1%. Real GDP growth for all of 2021 was unrevised at 5.7%, the fastest annual pace since 1984.

Haver
March 31, 2022
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% (13.7% y/y) during February after strengthening 2.7% in January. A 0.6% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for price inflation, spending declined 0.4% last month (+6.9% y/y) after increasing 2.1% in January. Personal income rose an expected 0.5% (6.0% y/y) during February following a 0.1% rise.

Capital Economics
April 1, 2022
With euro-zone inflation having jumped to 7.5% in March it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will accelerate its plans to tighten monetary policy. We now think it will begin raising rates as soon as July and that the deposit rate will reach around 1.5% by end-2023.

Capital Economics
March 31, 2022
The recent PMI surveys add to growing evidence of a large blow to service sector activity amid the latest virus surge. The hit to industry looks to have been much more modest. But even so, the economy is in the midst of its most abrupt downturn since early 2020.

Reuters
April 1, 2022
US officials are urging world leaders to maintain sanctions on Russia amid signs that the ruble is stabilizing. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo is holding meetings across Western Europe, economic adviser Daleep Singh is in India and Secretary of State Antony Blinken has visited Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Capital Economics
April 1, 2022
The Bank of Japan had to go to unprecedented lengths to push 10-year yields back down into its ±0.25% tolerance band this week. If this week’s rate of JGB purchases were sustained through April, the BoJ’s holdings would rise by a record ¥13 trillion this month. Keeping that rate going would see them own all outstanding JGBs by 2025.

Financial Times
April 3, 2022
Recent economic data strengthens the arguments in favor of a half percentage-point interest rate increase at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, said Mary Daly, president of the Fed’s San Francisco branch. “The case for 50 [basis points], barring any negative surprise between now and the next meeting, has grown,” she said.