10 Things You Need to Know: August 19, 2025
Key data releases this week include: NAHB Housing Market Index (Mon), housing starts (Tue), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), leading economic indicators (Thu), and existing homes sales (Thu).
Haver
August 12, 2025
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (2.7% y/y) in July after rising 0.3% in June. The July increase matched the forecast in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.3% (3.1% y/y) last month after a 0.2% June rise.
Haver
August 14, 2025
The Producer Price Index for final demand strengthened 0.9% (3.3% y/y) during July after unrevised stability in June. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in July. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services jumped 0.6% last month (2.8% y/y). The PPI less food & energy rose a more-than-expected 0.9% (3.7% y/y). A 0.2% increase was expected.
Haver
August 15, 2025
Total retail sales increased 0.5% (3.9% y/y) during July after rising 0.9% in June. The overall rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, rose 0.5% (4.8% y/y) last month after increasing 0.8% in June.
Capital Economics
August 14, 2025
Recent data confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labor market is cooling. We are forecasting a temporary pick-up in growth next year as a result of Germany’s fiscal stimulus but the risks to this view are increasingly to the downside.
South China Morning Post, Financial Times
August 15, 2025
China’s economy showed signs of strain in July, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.7% year-over-year from 4.8% in June, missing economists’ expectations. The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the slowdown to weakening domestic consumption, challenges from the US trade war, and an extended property downturn.
Barron’s
August 18, 2025
Investors have typically penalized emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina, and China due to concerns about the independence of the central bank, government intervention in the private sector, and rampant overspending. Now economists and strategists are raising similar concerns about the U.S. Experts say that if these patterns continue, investors may see a reduction in the premium that U.S. assets have long commanded.
Barron’s
August 18, 2025
“The three elements of an institutional framework that are crucial to the U.S. dollar’s dominance are rule of law, a system of checks and balances, and the independence of the central banks, and each of those pillars is significantly being undercut,” Prasad says. That dollar dominance has been a factor in the premium that U.S. assets have typically commanded.
Yahoo, Bloomberg
August 18, 2025
Bond traders are positioning heavily for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, with Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this week seen as the key test of those expectations. Weaker jobs data has bolstered the case for easing, though hotter inflation and political pressure complicate the backdrop. Markets will zero in on Powell’s tone and upcoming labor data to confirm whether the Fed delivers a quarter-point move or surprises with something bigger.
Reuters, MarketWatch
August 12, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that the Federal Reserve consider a 50-basis-point interest-rate cut in September, citing weaker-than-expected job growth and unusual service inflation. Bessent also expressed hope that Stephen Miran, President Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, will be confirmed in time for the September policy meeting.