10 Things You Need to Know: July 29, 2025
Key data releases this week include: FHFA House Price Index (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), Q2 GDP (Wed), pending home sales (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), personal income and spending (Thu), PCE Price Index (Thu), ISM Manufacturing (Fri), consumer sentiment (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
July 23, 2025
Existing home sales declined 2.7% (0.0% y/y) to 3.93 million (SAAR) in June after increasing 1.0% in May to 4.04 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.00 million units of sales in June. The median price average of all existing homes (NSA) strengthened 2.7% (2.0% y/y) to a record $435,300 in June, up for the fifth straight month.
Haver
July 24, 2025
Sales of new single-family home sales improved 0.6% (-6.6% y/y) in June to 627,000 (SAAR) after falling 11.6% to 623,000 in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 650,000 in June. The median sales price of a new home declined 4.9% (-2.9% y/y) to $401,800 (NSA) in June after rising 2.3% to $422,700 in May.
CNBC, Reuters, The New York Times
July 27, 2025, July 28, 2025, July 28, 2025
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have struck a major trade deal setting a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods and outlining $750 billion in EU energy purchases from the US and $600 billion in US investments. Though the two leaders differed on some specifics, the deal avoids a tariff escalation and is expected to bring relief to financial markets.
South China Morning Post, CNBC
July 28, 2025, July 27, 2025
US and Chinese negotiators are resuming tariff talks in Stockholm as an Aug. 12 deadline approaches for a durable tariff agreement. Without a deal, tariffs could exceed 100%, disrupting global supply chains. The talks, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, aim to extend a truce and prevent further escalation.
Bloomberg
July 28, 2025
The US-Japan trade deal announced by President Donald Trump includes a $550 billion investment fund, but details on the fund’s implementation remain unclear. Uncertainty lingers over the actual sources and timeline for the funding, and whether recent large Japanese corporate investments in the US will count toward the total. Both countries present the fund as beneficial but diverge on the specifics of its operation.
Barron’s
July 28, 2025
The second quarter earnings season is off to a strong start, with more than 80% of companies beating earnings-per-share estimates among the one-third of S&P 500 index companies that have reported so far. This week is the busiest on the calendar, with roughly 150 S&P 500 companies reporting.
Barron’s
July 28, 2025
A 25-year-old with a $60,000 salary could become a 401(k) millionaire at age 55 if they save 15% a year, assuming modest salary increases and a 7% average annual return. Even if they started at age 35, they would be a millionaire by 63, according to data from Fidelity.
Other Voices / Barron’s
July 28, 2025
The 1970s aren’t coming back. The stagflation of the 1970s was a confluence of macro shocks like an embargo by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, excessive fiscal policy brought about by the Vietnam War and the Great Society programs, and bad monetary policy. Inflation persisted above 5% for nearly a decade, hitting a high of nearly 15% in 1980. The Fed has the tools to fight stagflation.
Barron’s
July 28, 2025
To date, U.S. retailers have borne the brunt of the tariffs already in place. Many retailers front-loaded imports early in the year, stockpiling inventory ahead of the new policies. But that inventory is running low. The impact of all this year’s tariffs would amount to an average per household income loss of $2,800 in 2025, according to an estimate by the Budget Lab at Yale.