10 Things You Need to Know: June 24, 2025
Key data releases this week include: existing home sales (Mon), FHFA House Price Index (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), Powell Testimony before Congress (Tue, Wed), new home sales (Wed), Q1 GDP revision (Thu), pending home sales (Thu), personal income and spending (Thu), and PCE Price Index (Fri).
Haver
June 17, 2025
Total retail sales slumped 0.9% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in May following a 0.1% monthly decline in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for total sales to fall 0.6% m/m in May. sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, rebounded 0.4% m/m (5.0% y/y) in May after a 0.1% m/m decline in April.
Haver
June 17, 2025
Import prices were unchanged during May after rising 0.1% (0.2% y/y) in April. A 0.3% decline was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices fell 0.9% during May (1.7% y/y) after a 0.1% April gain. A 0.2% decline was expected.
The Conference Board
June 20, 2025
The Leading Economic Index for the US ticked down by 0.1% in May 2025 to 99.0, after declining by 1.4% in April. The LEI has fallen by 2.7% in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4% contraction over the previous six months.
Bloomberg
June 19, 2025
The European Union is making progress in trade negotiations with the US, according to EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, as a July 9 deadline for increased tariffs set by President Trump approaches. The EU has prepared tariffs on $24.1 billion of US goods in response to Trump’s metal levies and is ready to protect its economic interests if a resolution isn’t reached.
Bloomberg
June 23, 2025
China moved to tighten controls over two chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl, in an apparent olive branch to the US that may help maintain their fragile trade truce. Authorities added two previously unclassified precursors to a list of Class Two chemicals, according to a joint statement by six government departments on Monday.
Barron’s
June 23, 2025
For fiscal 2024, some 351 companies in the S&P 500 index, or 71%, reported either non-GAAP net income or non-GAAP earnings per share. In fact, 89% of those 351 companies reported adjustments making their results look better. That means 63% of the overall S&P 500 reported higher earnings after accounting adjustments, while only 7.8% had lower non-GAAP earnings. (The balance of all S&P companies had no adjustments.) That kind of math gives one pause.
Barron’s
June 23, 2025
The newest generation of college graduates will switch jobs more than a dozen times over the course of their careers. This is resulting in less stability in retirement savings for many workers. Rollovers require paperwork. Vesting schedules reset. Contribution levels drop. Frequent job switches cost workers as much as $300,000 in lost retirement savings over a career.
Bloomberg
June 20, 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank can lower interest rates as soon as next month, reiterating his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived. He also said he believes the Fed’s benchmark rate is 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points above the estimated neutral level, at which it would neither slow nor stimulate the economy.
Capital Economics
June 23, 2025
We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession – provided Congress can quickly redirect the tariff revenue back into the economy – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.9% this year and 1.5% in 2026. Fears of second-round effects from tariff-driven price increases will keep the Fed on hold this year.