10 Things You Need to Know: June 17, 2025
Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Tue), Import Price Index (Tue), industrial production (Tue), NAHB Housing Market Index (Tue), housing starts (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), and leading economic indicators (Fri).
Haver
June 10, 2025
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.1% to 98.8 in May after falling 1.6% to an unrevised 95.8 in April. Seven of the ten index components increased last month. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose 2.2% (10.6% y/y) in May to 94.
Haver
June 11, 2025
The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% higher in May after rising 0.2% in April. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase in the headline CPI of 2.4% in May compared to 2.3% in April. The CPI excluding food & energy also edged 0.1% higher. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The steady 2.8% y/y gain remained the weakest rise in core prices in four years.
Haver
June 12, 2025
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1% (2.6% y/y) during May after falling 0.2% in April. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in May. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services also edged up 0.1% (2.7% y/y). The PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.1% last month (3.0% y/y) after declining 0.2% in April. A 0.3% increase was expected.
Haver
June 11, 2025
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $316.0 billion during May, which compared to a deficit of $347.1 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $322.0 billion deficit in May. During the first eight months of the current fiscal year, however, the government ran a budget deficit of $1.365 trillion versus a deficit of $1.202 trillion in the first eight months of FY’24.
Barron’s
June 16, 2025
Only more severe damage to energy infrastructure or disruption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for tanker traffic, would produce a lasting rise in energy prices, writes Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. Oil producers have plenty of spare capacity to offset temporary disruptions, he adds.
MarketWatch, Reuters
June 15, 2025
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting this week, with Chair Jerome Powell offering fresh guidance this week amid persistent economic uncertainty. With inflation easing but geopolitical and trade risks rising, Wall Street is left guessing whether the next move will come in September, or later.
DJ
June 16, 2025
House Republicans slammed Senate GOP leaders for reportedly backing a plan to preserve the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions – a move that could sink President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill before it even hits the Senate floor. Senate Republicans largely hail from lower-tax states and view the deduction as a giveaway to wealthy blue-state residents and as a budget buster than they can’t justify.
Reuters, Bloomberg
June 10, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly emerged as a contender for Federal Reserve chair, joining Kevin Warsh and others on President Donald Trump’s list to replace Jerome Powell in 2026. Bessent has been instrumental in economic initiatives, including US-China trade negotiations, and analysts say he would likely maintain Fed independence from political influence.
Bloomberg
June 9, 2025
The US government could face a funding shortfall between mid-August and the end of September if the debt ceiling is not raised, according to an updated estimate released by the Congressional Budget Office on Monday. Since early 2025, the Treasury has relied on extraordinary measures to continue meeting financial obligations without breaching the limit. The CBO warns these temporary solutions will likely be exhausted by late summer, heightening the risk of default.