10 Things You Need to Know: April 29, 2025
Key data releases this week include: FHFA Housing Price Index (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), Q1 GDP (Wed), personal income and spending (Wed), PCE Price Index (Wed), pending home sales (Wed), ISM Manufacturing Index (Thu), factory orders (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
The Conference Board
April 21, 2025
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5 (2016=100), after a decline of 0.2% in February. The LEI also fell by 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, a smaller rate of decline than its –2.3% contraction over the previous six months.
Haver
April 24, 2025
Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-2.4% y/y) during March to 4.02 million units after rising 4.4% to 4.270 million units in February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.15 million unit sales. The median price averaged by all existing homes (NSA) rose 1.7% (2.7% y/y) to $403,700 in March after a 0.9% February increase.
Bloomberg
April 28, 2025
Hopes have grown that the worst of the US tariff threat may be passing after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” on trade as soon as this week. Bessent said Sunday that negotiations with some trading partners “are moving along very well, especially with the Asian countries.”
Barron’s
April 28, 2025
Yields on the 30-year muni index are now about 95% of those on 30-year Treasuries. That means you get the benefits of tax exemption practically for free. For 10-year munis, the ratio is 80%, so essentially anyone in a tax bracket higher than 20% would benefit from owning munis over Treasuries. You can generate a tax-equivalent yield of 6% to 8% in a high-quality asset class.
Barron’s
April 28, 2025
All told, there is now an estimated $4 trillion worth of gold held by central banks, and $5 trillion by private investors. Calculated against $260 trillion for all financial assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives, that’s a global gold portfolio allocation of 3.5%, a record.
Barron’s
April 23, 2025
Fresh data from the Treasury Department show little sign of foreign investors avoiding U.S. debt in retaliation to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The so-called auction allotment report showed strong buying in the foreign and international category. The group bought 22% more debt in Treasury auctions in the first half of April compared with the first half of March.
Bloomberg
April 24, 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said firms may begin laying off more workers if aggressive tariff levels are reinstated by the Trump administration, and he’d support rate cuts if there’s a significant rise in unemployment. “I would expect more rate cuts, and sooner, once I started seeing some serious deterioration in the labor market,” he said.
Bloomberg
April 28, 2025
Since the US raised levies on China to 145% in early April, cargo shipments have plummeted, perhaps by as much as 60%. By the middle of May, thousands of companies will be needing to replenish inventories. Torsten Slok, Apollo Management’s chief economist, warns of looming “Covid-like” shortages and significant layoffs in industries from trucking, logistics and retail.
Capital Economics
April 23, 2025
We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects the tariff revenue back into the economy, a recession should be avoided- though growth will still slow. We forecast GDP to grow by 1.7% this year, and around 1.5% in both 2026 and 2027. With the economy cooling rather than crashing, the Fed is likely to remain on hold in 2025.