10 Things You Need to Know: April 15, 2025
Key data releases this week include: import prices (Tue), retail sales (Wed), industrial production (Wed), NAHB Housing Market Index (Wed), and housing starts (Thu).
Haver
April 8, 2025
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 3.3% to 97.4 during March after falling 2.0% to 100.7 in February. The index fell 10.1% y/y, and seven of the ten index components fell last month. On the pricing front, the net percentage raising their average selling prices fell to 26% last month after rising to 32% in February.
Haver
April 10, 2025
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $1.307 trillion for the first six months of FY 2025, up 22.7% from a $1.065 trillion deficit for the half of FY’24. For March alone, the government ran a budget deficit of $160.5 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $103.0 billion deficit in March.
Haver
April 10, 2025
The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% lower (2.4% y/y) in March after rising 0.2% in February and 0.5% in January. A 0.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose 0.1% (2.8% y/y) following increases of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January. A 0.3% rise had been expected.
Haver
April 11, 2025
The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.4% (+2.7% y/y) during March after increasing 0.1% in February. The March reading compared to a 0.2% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food & energy eased 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) after rising 0.1% in February. A 0.3% increase was expected.
Bloomberg
April 11, 2025
The University of Michigan’s headline consumer-sentiment index deteriorated to 50.8 in the preliminary reading for April (vs. 57.0 prior). The consensus expected a reading of 53.8, while we expected 54.0. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7%. Long-run inflation expectations, which are more crucial for policymakers, rose further to 4.4%.
Barron’s
April 14, 2025
U.S. Treasuries have long been the ultimate haven for global investors, but that status is being eroded. Gold’s rally may signal that international buyers increasingly are seeking safety in the metal instead. The metal is up more than tenfold in the past 25 years, better than the S&P 500. It has far outpaced bonds and most alternative investments, yet few U.S. investors have much exposure to it.
Barron’s
April 14, 2025
Wall Street analysts are already cutting their 2025 sales and earnings forecasts. Estimates for aggregate 2025 S&P 500 earnings sat at $273 in early November just before the election, according to FactSet. They’re at $267 now, and that’s likely not the end of the reductions.
Bloomberg
April 10, 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he expects slower economic growth, higher unemployment and a pickup in inflation due to US tariffs policy and reduced immigration. “The current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still above our 2% goal,” he said. Separately, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said tariffs are a “stagflationary shock.”
The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch
April 12, 2025, April 13, 2025
Economists have significantly revised their forecasts since US President Donald Trump took office, citing tariffs as the main reason. According to a survey, growth estimates for 2025 have been cut to 0.8%, down from 2% in January, while inflation and unemployment projections have risen. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has increased to 45%.