10 Things You Need to Know: March 11, 2025
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
March 7, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased 151,000 (1.3% y/y) during February after rising 125,000 in January. Expectations had been for a 160,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during February after increasing 0.4% in January. The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up to 4.1% last month and reversed the January dip to 4.0%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.0%.
Haver
March 5, 2025
The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 53.5 during February after falling to 52.8 in January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 53.0 for February. The prices index rose to 62.6 in February after declining to 60.4 in January.
Bloomberg
March 5, 2025
Economic activity rose “slightly” since mid-January but businesses across the country reported uncertainty surrounding new policies from the Trump administration, particularly on tariffs, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. Looking ahead, firms across the country “expected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices, with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively.”
Bloomberg
March 10, 2025
Germany’s Green party rejected a debt-financed package that would unleash hundreds of billions of euros in defense and infrastructure spending, potentially imperiling the flagship policy of chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz. Merz, who is assembling a coalition to succeed Chancellor Olaf Scholz after winning last month’s election, needs Green support to secure a two-thirds majority required for a constitutional amendment to ease borrowing restrictions.
Capital Economics
March 5, 2025
We don’t think that the policy agenda set out at the National People’s Congress will prevent a slowdown. While fiscal support has been stepped up, the scale of easing is smaller than we had expected, and modest in comparison to previous easing cycles. although the government’s growth target of “around 5%” may be met on paper, we think the economy’s actual growth will be much weaker.
Barron’s
March 10, 2025
The U.S. housing crisis is, in large part, a supply-and-demand problem. It would take three or more years of home building at current rates to meet the need for 3.7 million units. The country has built only an average of one million single-family homes over the past five years. It could get worse. The threat of new tariffs, including those on Canada and Mexico, could complicate home building supply chains and ultimately drive up costs for buyers, the industry warns.
American Banker, ABC News
March 7, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious approach to interest rate changes, citing uncertainty over the Trump administration’s trade and fiscal policies. While inflation is easing, the Fed will wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting its stance, Powell said.
Financial Times, The Globe and Mail
March 10, 2025
Mark Carney has been elected as the new leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal party, replacing Justin Trudeau and pledging to “build a stronger Canada for everyone” while saying retaliatory tariffs on US goods will remain as long as President Donald Trump continues the trade war. “My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect — and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade,” he said.
Capital Economics
March 6, 2025
Although our forecast for first-quarter GDP growth is now down to -1.9% annualized, we still believe that, on balance, the US economy will escape recession and rebound in the second quarter, as the distortion caused by the unseasonably severe winter weather and the pre-tariff- surge in imports are both reversed.