10 Things You Need to Know: February 11, 2025
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), Fed Chair Jerrome Powell Testimony before Congress (Tue, Wed), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), retail sales (Fri), and industrial production (Fri).
Haver
February 7, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased 143,000 (1.3% y/y) in January after rising 307,000 in December and 261,000 in November. Expectations were for a 165,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings increased 0.5% last month (4.1% y/y). The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, eased to 4.0% in January from 4.1% in December.
Trading Economics
February 4, 2025
Job openings in the United States fell by 556,000 to 7.6 million in December 2024, missing the market expectation of 8.0 million and indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market. Notable decreases occurred in professional and business services (-225,000), health care and social assistance (-180,000), and finance and insurance (-136,000).
Haver
February 5, 2025
The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January following an increase to 54.0 in December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 54.2 for January. On the inflation front, the prices index fell to 60.4 in January after jumping to 64.4 in December.
Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal
February 9, 2025, February 9, 2025, February 10, 2025
China has announced tariffs on $14 billion worth of US goods including liquefied natural gas, coal and farm equipment. The tariffs, ranging from 10% to 15%, indicate there is potential for negotiation, but no deal has yet been reached.
Capital Economics
February 7, 2025
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more support for the economy. We think a further 75bps of cuts lie in store in this cycle.
Barron’s
February 10, 2025
About 310 S&P 500 index companies have reported fourth-quarter results so far, with nearly 80% beating earnings-per-share estimates and 20% missing estimates. Ahead of any tariff disruptions, US earnings are coming in strong, and fourth-quarter results are expected to be up 12% year over year.
Barron’s
February 10, 2025
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget just this past week said a budget resolution being considered by the House of Representatives’ leadership would double the rate of increase in federal debt over the next decade, mainly because interest payments would “explode.” Interest would rise to 4.7% of GDP by 2025, far above the previous peak of 3.2%.
The Associated Press, Reuters
February 10, 2025
President Donald Trump will impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, adding to existing duties, as part of his trade policy escalation. The move raises concerns over potential retaliatory measures from trading partners like Canada and Mexico, which supply a significant portion of US metal imports. Trump also plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs matching foreign duties, increasing uncertainty in global trade markets.
Capital Economics
February 7, 2025
The rise in corporate bankruptcies last year is not a huge concern, but it supports our view that GDP growth was set to slow even before accounting for any potential policy changes this year. Meanwhile, If the Trump administration pursues a country-by-country reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed.