10 Things You Need to Know: November 5, 2024
Key data releases this week include: factory orders (Mon), ISM Services (Tue), nonfarm productivity (Thu), FOMC rate decision (Thu), consumer credit (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
October 29, 2024
U.S. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in August after upwardly revised increases of 0.2% in July. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 4.2% in August, the lowest since June 2023, from 4.7% in July; it was down from 5.7% in August 2023 and well below a high of 18.8% in February 2022.
Haver
October 29, 2024
JOLTS job openings fell 418,000 (-20.0% y/y) in September to 7.443 million, their lowest level since January 2021. The number of job openings have been trending down since early-2022 and the latest reading is well below the recent peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022. The ratio of openings to unemployment fell to 1.09.
Haver
October 30, 2024
Real GDP growth of 2.8% (SAAR) last quarter followed a 3.0% gain in the second quarter and 1.6% growth in the first quarter. It compared to expectations for 3.0% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Annual growth eased to 2.7% from 3.2% at the end of last year and 4.0% at the beginning of 2022.
Haver
October 31, 2024
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.5% (5.3% y/y) in September, after a 0.3% rise during August. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income rose 0.3% (5.5% y/y) in September, after rising of 0.2% in August. A 0.4% gain was expected.
Haver
October 31, 2024
The PCE chain price index rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y) in September following unrevised increases of 0.1% and 0.2% in August and July. The price index excluding food and energy, however, moved 0.3% (2.7% y/y) higher last month after three straight months of 0.2% increase.
Bloomberg
November 1, 2024
Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 (1.3% y/y) in October after rising 223,000 in September and 78,000 in August. Expectations had been for a 125,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The damage from Hurricanes Milton & Helene plus the Boeing strike pulled the three-month average change to 104,000, the weakest since a decline in June 2020.
Barron’s
November 4, 2024
There have been past periods when the major equity indexes did nothing for extended stretches. Among them was 1972-82. This long span, during which the broad indexes flatlined, actually was a fertile time for stock pickers. That was after the Nifty Fifty market of the early 1970s, when no price was too high to pay for supposed world beaters, supposedly to be held forever.
Barron’s
November 4, 2024
Even if one party gains control of Congress, the margin of control for the majority party will be quite narrow, limiting the legislation either candidate might be able to pass.
Oxford Economics
October 30, 2024
The Q3 GDP report is better than it appears as real final sales to domestic purchasers matched their largest gain since the first three months of 2023. Nevertheless, we don’t expect that Q3 GDP to alter the Fed’s calculus for its November meeting and the forecast remains for a 25bp rate cut. The GDP figure sends a clear message that the economy is doing well, and inflation is moderating — good news for the Federal Reserve.