10 Things You Need to Know: September 10, 2024
Key data releases this week include: consumer credit (Mon), NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
September 5, 2024
Nonfarm payrolls increased 142,000 (1.5% y/y) during August after rising 89,000 in July and 118,000 in June. Expectations had been for a 162,000 August increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings strengthened 0.4% (3.8% y/y/). The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, eased to an expected 4.2%.
Bloomberg
September 4, 2024
The September Beige Book painted a gloomy picture of the economy. More districts (9 out of 12) saw flat or declining activity as consumer spending ticked down and manufacturing declined.
Haver
September 5, 2024
The U.S. ISM Services PMI edged up to 51.5 in August after rising to 51.4 in July and falling to a contraction-level 48.8 in June, indicating expansion in the services sector in six of eight months in 2024. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 51.0 for August.
Bloomberg
September 7, 2024
The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates this Thursday, marking a second reduction following July’s move. The ECB’s decision is influenced by slowing wage growth in the eurozone. President Christine Lagarde is expected to discuss growth prospects, and further cuts are anticipated in December.
South China Morning Post, Reuters
September 9, 2024
China’s consumer price index increased by 0.6% in August, primarily due to weather-related food price hikes. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, hit a near three-and-a-half-year low at 0.3%. Economists have expressed concerns over persistent deflationary pressures and overcapacity, suggesting that more fiscal spending is needed. The producer price index fell by 1.8%, the biggest drop in four months.
CNBC
September 9, 2024
The unwinding of the yen carry trade will continue in September, potentially causing another major sell-off in global markets, analysts have said. “We have a risk off mood, which we’re already seeing across financial markets, and that is going to lead to the ongoing unwind of carry trades that we have seen already,” said Kathy Lien, forex strategist at BK Asset Management. “Maybe it’s going to be a much more aggressive unwind, if we do get a significant sell-off in stocks,” she said.
Barron’s
September 9, 2024
The Biden administration has announced a goal to triple the nation’s nuclear capacity by 2050. That would necessitate building about 200 large-scale reactors. Yet not a single new one is under construction today. Even if a project were to be announced before the end of the year, it would probably take a decade to plan and build.
Oxford Economics
September 6, 2024
Strong gains in productivity over the past few years mean wages gains as high as 4% could be consistent with the Fed’s inflation target. That’s because more profitable firms could absorb the added labor cost instead of passing it along to consumers. Meanwhile, evidence suggests that the so-called “vibecession,” or that prolonged period of negative sentiment about the economy, appears to be ending.
Bloomberg
September 9, 2024
Gold should rally to $2,700 per ounce by early 2025 with the Federal Reserve poised to start cutting rates in September, bringing Western capital back into the precious metal, Goldman’s team of commodity analysts told clients in a Monday research note. Separately, Bank of America believes in a gold target of $3,000 per ounce sometime in the next 12 to 18 months.