10 Things You Need To Know: January 17, 2024
Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Wed), NAHB Housing Market Index (Wed), industrial production (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), housing starts (Thu), existing home sales (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
January 11, 2024
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in December following a 0.1% m/m (3.1% y/y) gain in November. The core index also rose 0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y) in December versus 0.3% m/m (4.0% y/y) in November. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.2% monthly increase in the headline and a 0.3% m/m rise in the core index.
Haver
January 12, 2024
The Producer Price Index for final demand slipped 0.1% m/m in December after a decline of 0.1% in November. The year-over-year rate accelerated to 1.0% in December after decelerating to 0.8% in November. A 0.2% m/m increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy were unchanged (1.8% y/y) in December.
Haver
January 8, 2024
Consumer credit surged $23.8 billion (2.8% y/y) during November following a $5.8 billion October rise, revised from $5.2 billion. A $10.0 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income held steady at 24.4% and has been declining since a 25.4% December 2022 high.
Bloomberg
January 10, 2024
The euro-area economy was likely in a technical recession in the second half of 2023, said ECB vice president Luis de Guindos. “Soft indicators point to an economic contraction in December”, he said, which would confirm the possibility of a recession. “Incoming data indicate that the future remains uncertain, and the prospects are tilted to the downside,” Guindos added.
The Wall Street Journal
January 12, 2024
Concerns are growing over China’s worsening deflation and the potential global ramifications after data last week showed a third consecutive month of falling prices. Morgan Stanley economists have described this situation as the “longest and deepest” deflation in the country since the region’s 1998 financial crisis.
The Wall Street Journal
January 12, 2024
Group of Seven countries are exploring ways to confiscate Russian assets frozen in their jurisdictions to back loans to Ukraine without scaring off international investors. Proposals thus far have been met with consternation in Europe but are seeing rising interest in the US as lawmakers block funding for Ukraine.
Bloomberg
January 16, 2024
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank should take a cautious and systematic approach when it begins cutting interest rates. “With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2%, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” he said. Economic shocks have precipitated rapid rate cuts.
Oxford Economics
January 11, 2024
Taken together, the initial and continued claims data are consistent with a labor market that has loosened but can’t be described as weak. We expect job growth to moderate further but remain positive in the months ahead, giving the Fed room to start cutting rates at its May meeting as long as inflation continues to decelerate.
FT
January 9, 2024
Forecasts from the World Bank say global economic growth is set for its worst half-decade in 30 years. The forecasts show global GDP growing 2.4% next year, compared with 2.6% this year, which would mark the third consecutive year of declines. “Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” said World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill.