10 Things You Need to Know: December 5, 2023
Key data releases this week include: factory orders (Mon), JOLTS Job Openings (Tue), ISM Services (Tue), consumer credit (Thu), consumer sentiment (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
November 28, 2023
U.S. house prices rose 0.6% m/m in September after rises of 0.7% in August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The September reading was the 10th straight monthly rise to the highest index level on record (414.76). The year-on-year rate of increase accelerated to 6.1% in September, the highest since December 2022, from 5.8% in August.
Haver
November 29, 2023
Real GDP growth in the third quarter was lifted to 5.2% (SAAR) from 4.9% reported last month. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 5.0% gain. Personal consumption expenditures growth was lessened to 3.6% (2.3% y/y) from 4.0% following a 0.8% Q2 rise. Government spending increased 5.5% (4.7% y/y), revised from 4.6%, after a 3.3% rise.
CNBC
November 30. 2023
PCE deflator was unchanged in October. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.
Haver
November 30, 2023
The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) fell 1.5% (-8.5% y/y) to 71.4 during October following a minimally revised 1.0% September rise. The index stood 44.2% below its August 2020 high of 128.0.
Financial Times
November 29, 2023
Japanese regional banks are being warned to prepare for the country’s first interest rate hike in over ten years, with the Bank of Japan cautioning regional banks that bought into long-term loans and securities exposed to interest rate risks. Japan’s 97 regional banks held unrealized losses on bonds and trusts of about $19 billion.
Barron’s
December 4, 2023
Fed governor Christopher Waller this past week expressed confidence that inflation was receding back toward the central bank’s 2% target. If that trend continues for several more months, the Fed could start lowering rates even without a rise in unemployment, he added.
Bloomberg
December 1, 2023
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against growing expectations of interest-rate cuts in the first half of 2024, saying the committee will move cautiously with borrowing costs at a 22-year high but retain the option to hike further. “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so,” he said.
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CNBC
December 3, 2023
Unit labor costs dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% during the third quarter, per the Labor Department, a surprise decline as economists had predicted a 0.7% increase. In addition, productivity rose 4.7%, the largest quarterly rise since the same period in 2020.
Bloomberg
December 4, 2023
More than 60% of US home loans have rates below 4%, according to data from Black Knight, while the latest 30-year Freddie Mac mortgage rate is closer to 7.2%. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates relative to where borrowers have locked in leads to a 9% decline in the rate at which people move houses.