10 Things You Need to Know: November 7, 2023
Key data releases this week include: trade balance (Tue), consumer credit (Tue), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
November 7, 2023
Nonfarm payrolls increased 150,000 during October (1.9% y/y) after rising 297,000 in September. The October reading was the weakest since June. Expectations had been for a 182,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up to 3.9% in October from 3.8% in September.
Haver
November 3, 2023
The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 51.8 in October from 53.6 in September and 54.5 in August, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion for the 10th consecutive month but at the slowest pace since May. The 12-month average was 52.9, reflecting strong growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 53.2 for October.
Bloomberg, Financial Times
October 31,2023 , October 31, 2023
Eurozone inflation fell more than expected in October, with consumer prices rising by the smallest increase since July 2021. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the year to October, down from 4.3% the month before. Core inflation also fell from 4.5% to 4.2%.
Financial Times, Bloomberg
October 31, 2023, October 31, 2023
The Bank of Japan has made significant changes to its long-standing policy of controlling long-term interest rates. This move comes as the bank anticipates larger policy shifts due to its increased inflation projections. On Tuesday, the BOJ’s policy board decided to permit yields on the 10-year Japanese government bond to exceed 1%, marking the second adjustment to its yield curve control policy in three months.
Barron’s
November 6, 2023
While many are aware that individual consumers account for over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, some might not know that individual investors account for over two-thirds of investment assets. Total family wealth, including nonfinancial assets, has more than tripled over the past three decades to $140 trillion, which is five times the size of gross domestic product. \
Barron’s
November 6, 2023
Over the past few decades, the number of U.S.-listed public companies has more than halved—from 8,000 to fewer than 4,000. Today, there are 16,000 companies owned by private-equity firms. At the same time, the length of time a company typically stays private before an initial public offering has nearly doubled, from six years to 11.
Capital Economics
November 1, 2023
By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to strike a more dovish tone in his press conference, and we suspect the data over the coming weeks will see the case for a final hike continue to erode, with the Fed likely to start cutting rates again in the first half of next year.
Bloomberg
November 5, 2023
The House spent the weekend working on a short-term extension of government funding, with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., saying the move “would allow us time” for the app. ropriations process to continue. Johnson has previously indicated that a stopgap bill might extend funding until Jan. 15.
Reuters, CNBC
October 31, 2023, October 31, 2023
The Israel-Hamas war could send oil prices to a record high, the World Bank has said, surging up to $157 per barrel. “In a ‘large disruption scenario’… the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day. That would drive prices up by 56% to 75% initially — to between $140 and $157 a barrel,” the World Bank said. The previous record was set in 2008 when Brent traded at $147.5 per barrel.