10 Things You Need to Know: October 10, 2023
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), PPI (Wed), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), CPI (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
October 6, 2023
The job market is firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 336,000 during September (2.1% y/y) after rising 227,000 in August, revised from 187,000, and 236,000 in July, revised from 157,000. The September reading was the strongest since January & triple June’s 105,000 increase. During the first nine months of the year, payrolls rose an average of 260,000 per month. Expectations had been for a 165,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver
October 3, 2023
The number of job openings increased 7.7% (-5.8% y/y) to 9.61 million, following a 2.7% July decline, revised from -3.7%, according to the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The job openings rate rose to 5.8%, from an upwardly revised 5.4% in July. This was the highest rate in three months, but still below the 7.4% high in in March 2022.
Haver
October 4, 2023
The ISM Services PMI fell to 53.6 in September after increasing to 54.5 in August. The index stood at 52.7 in July. Despite the decline, the index remained up from a low of 49.2 in December 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 53.5. A reading above 50 represents an increase in activity.
Reuters
October 4, 2023
The euro zone economy probably shrank last quarter, according to a survey which showed demand fell in September at the fastest pace in almost three years as indebted consumers reined in spending in the face of rising borrowing costs and higher prices. HCOB’s final Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, nudged up to 47.2 in September from August’s 46.7.
Bloomberg
October 5, 2023
Citigroup upgraded China’s growth forecast for the year, as economists predict the economy has reached its cyclical bottom. The bank’s economists expect the economy to grow 5%, up from 4.7% previously, if retail sales and industrial production improve, but a property crisis threatens to slow activity.
Bloomberg
October 9, 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the recent surge in long-term Treasury yields may mean less need for the US central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate again. “Higher term premiums result in higher term interest rates for the same setting of the fed funds rate, all else equal,” she stated. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials are in a position to “proceed carefully” after the recent rise in Treasury yields.
Bloomberg
October 5, 2023
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank is paying close attention to potential signs of financial stress. However, Goolsbee also expressed optimism that the Fed may be able to remain on course for the “mother of all soft landings.”
ThinkAdvisor
October 4,2023
An analysis by Morningstar finds wide variances in the portfolio recommendations made by different robo-advisors for the same client. The research also found that several robo-advisors recommended the same portfolio allocation for different investor profiles. “The upshot is that while robo-investing delivers on its promise to automate the investment process, investors should still do their own research,” wrote Morningstar Research Services’` Amy Arnott
Capital Economics
October 3, 2023
Talk of “dollarization” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar underscores that the greenback will remain the currency of choice for EM policymakers looking for an external nominal anchor