10 Things You Need to Know: September 9, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), consumer credit (Tue), PPI (Thu), existing home sales (Thu), CPI (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Bloomberg
September 1, 2026
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell 1.0 point to 54.6 in August, down from 55.6 in July and slightly below the consensus estimate. Despite the moderation, this marked the eighth consecutive month of expansion. The prices paid sub-index was unchanged at 71. Meanwhile, the ISM Services index rose 1.3 points to 55.4, the highest level since February, exceeding the median estimate of economists. The measure of prices paid for materials and services in the sector climbed to 72.6.
Haver
September 3, 2026
The BLS reported no change in the initial estimate of 1.4% growth in labor productivity in Q2. Productivity growth in Q2 was a touch firmer than the average of 1.2% in the prior two quarters, but all three trailed the quarterly averages of 2.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.
Haver
September 4, 2026
U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 in August with upward revisions to both June and July. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest rate since June 2025. In the household survey, employment jumped 569,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, but the y/y rate continued to trend down, sliding to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021.
Bloomberg
September 4, 2026
Economists expect the European Central Bank to raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% this week, but not to make any further increases, contrary to market expectations of three more hikes by mid-2027. The divergence comes as the ECB faces challenges from rising energy prices driven by renewed Middle East conflict.
Barron’s
September 7, 2026
“The narrative in rates today is all about inflation and fiscal problems,” says Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo. “But the narrative going into 2027 is going to be all about the success or failure of AI.” If AI manages to boost productivity, this will be “massively deflationary and push rates lower.” But if AI doesn’t deliver the expected returns, “the bubble bursts and the Nasdaq is down 50% as investors rotate out of equities into Treasuries, and long rates fall dramatically.”
Barron’s
September 7, 2026
At least three Fed officials—Governor Christopher Waller, Governor Michael Barr, and New York Fed President John Williams—signaled this past week that the August inflation data will be a deciding factor in their policy decisions. Their tone contrasted with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech on Aug. 28 at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium.
Barron’s
September 7, 2026
The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to implement methodological changes to the calculation of PCE inflation with the September 30 release. They are expected to shave as much as several tenths of a percentage point off the PCE inflation reading. That makes the details contained in this week’s PPI and CPI data particularly important.
Ed Yardeni/ Barron’s
September 7, 2026
“The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates that real GDP is increasing by 4.8% (SAAR) in Q3, led by a whopping 21.5% increase in AI-supercharged fixed business-equipment investment. Productivity growth has rebounded since it last bottomed out in Q2 2017 at 0.85% It rose to 2.4% during Q2 2026, slightly exceeding its historical average of 2.3%. We predict this growth rate will rise to 3.0%-4.0% by the end of the decade.”
CNBC
September 1, 2026
The cryptocurrency sector is facing uncertainty as the CLARITY Act, a significant legislative effort to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, faces obstacles in the Senate. Despite efforts by industry leaders and Trump to rally support, many are pessimistic about the bill’s chances of passing this year.