10 Things You Need to Know: September 9, 2025
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), BLS benchmark revisions (Tue), PPI (Wed), CPI (Thu), Federal Budget Balance (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
September 3, 2025
Total factory orders fell 1.3% m/m (1.6% y/y) in July after a 4.8% drop in June. A 1.4% m/m July decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders fell 2.8% (+3.4% y/y), down for the third month in four. Core capital goods orders rose 1.1%.
Haver
September 4, 2025
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $78.3 billion in July from $59.1 billion in June. This was the largest trade shortfall since March. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a deficit of $78.6 billion.
Haver
September 5, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 during August after rising 79,000 in July and falling 13,000 during June. Expectations had been for an 83,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up m/m to an expected 4.3% from 4.2% in July. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) in August, the same as in July.
Capital Economics
September 4, 2025.
The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions.” We set ourselves a slightly higher bar for this ECB preview. While the Bank looks set to leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of this year, we think cuts are more likely than hikes in 2026. We also think fiscal risks will push up bond spreads in France in the next year or two.
The South China Morning Post
September 8, 2025
China’s exports to the US tumbled 33% in August, dragging overall export growth to a six-month low of 4.4% year over year. Imports rose just 1.3%, while Beijing leans on Southeast Asia, the EU and Africa to offset US tariffs and tighter scrutiny of rerouted shipments.
Barron’s
September 8, 2025
“We may declare a national housing emergency in the fall,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Homebuilders, hopes deregulation will be part of any executive action to fix housing, arguing for “a secure and affordable supply chain of building materials, and enacting policies that address a lack of skilled labor in construction. A proactive agenda to bring down material, construction, and labor costs will also help.”
Barron’s
September 8, 2025
While a stalling labor market will be used to justify a lower fed-funds target rate, it is unlikely to boost hiring or materially improve employment conditions. For that, businesses will need certainty and stability around trade policy. And with tariff policy in limbo after a federal appeals court struck down the President’s use of emergency powers, it could be a while before we get any clarity.
Barron’s
September 8, 2025
Over the past decade, private equity has outperformed public markets by nearly 3% on an annualized basis when measured against the MSCI ACWI Market Index, which represents nearly all global public equities. Public investment opportunities are believed to be more risk friendly. However, just seven companies now make up roughly one-third of the S&P 500’s value.
The Wall Street Journal
September 2, 2025
Municipal bonds, agency mortgage-backed securities, and preferred stock are becoming increasingly attractive alternatives to US Treasurys for investors seeking income and safety. Municipal bonds stand out with tax-exempt interest, agency mortgage-backed securities deliver yields just under 5% and are government-backed, and preferred stock offers attractive income from high-quality issuers.