10 Things You Need to Know: September 30, 2025
Key data releases this week include: pending home sales (Mon), FHFA House Price Index (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), ISM Manufacturing (Wed), factory orders (Thu), ISM Services (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
September 24, 2025
New single-family home sales jumped 20.5% m/m (15.4% y/y) to 800,000 units at an annual rate in August following a 1.8% drop to 664,000 in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 650,000 in August. The August m/m jump was the biggest since August 2022. The median sales price of a new home rose 4.7% (1.9% y/y) to $413,500 in August following a 2.1% decline in July.
Haver
September 25, 2025
Real GDP grew 3.8% q/q saar in the second quarter of 2025, revised up from 3.3% in the previous estimate. A 3.3% quarterly increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth over the four quarters ending in Q2 was unrevised at 2.1% y/y. Significant upward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were the key factors behind the upward revision to overall GDP growth.
Haver
September 25, 2025
Existing home sales eased 0.2% m/m (+1.8% y/y) to a higher-than-expected 4.00 million units (SAAR) in August following a 2.0% gain to 4.01 million in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 3.96 million units in August. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) to $422,600 in August.
Haver
September 26, 2025
Personal income increased 0.4% m/m (5.1% y/y) in August, the same monthly gain as in July. The Action Economic Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% monthly gain. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) posted another solid monthly gain, rising a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m (5.6% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.5% monthly gain.
Haver
September 26, 2025
The PCE price index increased 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) in August, as expected, following a 0.2% monthly gain in July. The core PCE price index (that is, excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% m/m (2.9% y/y) in August, as expected and the same monthly increase as in July.
Barrons
September 29, 2025
A weaker dollar is an underappreciated tailwind for U.S. equities and earnings of the multinational companies. The S&P 500 earns approximately 40% of revenue abroad. There’s a strong correlation between earnings revisions and how the dollar behaves. These things feed off each other.
Barrons
September 29, 2025
Barclays strategists reckon that a 20% decline in data-center investment would result in a 3% to 4% hit to next year’s S&P 500 earnings-per-share consensus, combined with a reduction of 10% to 13% in its price/earnings ratio.
Bloomberg
September 29, 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran may still hope to persuade his central bank colleagues that there’s a case for dramatic reductions in interest rates. But he hasn’t convinced many on Wall Street. Economists poured cold water on Miran’s first major policy speech, in which he argued that the Trump administration’s policies — on trade, immigration, taxes and regulation — have significantly lowered the level of interest rates needed to guard against inflation.
Bloomberg
September 29, 2025
President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks and furniture, including a 100% duty on patented drugs unless the producer is building a manufacturing plant in the US. In a separate post, Trump reiterated his threat to impose a 100% tariff “on any and all movies that are made outside of the United States.”