10 Things You Need to Know: September 3, 2025
Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Wed), factory orders (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), nonfarm productivity (Thu), trade balance (Thu), ISM Services (Thu), nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
September 2, 2025
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in August after falling to 48.0 during July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The June reading was 49.0. An August reading of 48.8 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The prices index eased to 63.7 last month from 64.8 in July, remaining below a high of 69.8 in April.
Haver
August 26, 2025
U.S. house prices weakened 0.2% (+2.6% y/y) during June after easing 0.1% in May. The annual increase is well below its recent high of 7.2% in February 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.
Haver
August 28, 2025
Real GDP grew 3.3% (SAAR) during the second quarter of 2025, revised from a 3.0% gain reported initially. The increase followed an unrevised 0.5% decline in Q1. A 3.1% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.4%.
Haver
August 29, 2025
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) last month after increasing 0.4% in June. The July rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income rose 0.4% last month (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.3% in June. A 0.5% gain was expected. The personal saving rate held steady in July at 4.4%, after falling from 5.0% in April.
Haver
August 29, 2025
The PCE chain price index increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y) after rising 0.3% in June. The price index excluding food & energy rose a steady 0.3% (2.9% y/y). The increases matched economists’ expectations.
Bloomberg
September 2, 2025
Consumer prices rose 2.1% from a year ago in August, edging up from 2% the previous month. A core measure that strips out volatile components like energy and food held at 2.3%. Closely watched gains in services prices eased to 3.1%. The report will confirm the ECB’s view that it can take another break from lowering borrowing costs on Sept. 11, comfortable with both the pace of inflation and the economy’s ability to withstand higher US trade levies.
Bloomberg
September 2, 2025
President Donald Trump said India has offered to cut its tariff rates following the US imposition last week of 50% levies as punishment for its purchases of Russian oil. “They have now offered to cut their Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday. It wasn’t clear when the offer was made, or whether the White House plans to reopen trade talks with India.
Reuters, WSJ
August 28, 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated he supports a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with further reductions likely in the following three to six months. “As I stand here today, I anticipate additional cuts over the next three to six months, and the pace of rate cuts will be driven by the incoming data,” he said.
Bloomberg, Reuters
August 28, 2025
The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a Sept. 4 hearing to consider the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill a short-term vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, with the full Senate expected to approve the confirmation before a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that begins Sept. 16. President Donald Trump has nominated Miran, who chairs the Council of Economic Advisers, to take over the seat vacated by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.