10 Things You Need to Know: September 29, 2026
Key data releases this week include: FHFA House Price Index (Tue), JOLTS Job Openings (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), personal income and spending (Wed), PCE Price Index (Wed), Q2 GDP revision (Wed), ISM Manufacturing (Thu), factory orders (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
September 24, 2026
New single-family home sales rose 6.4% m/m (-2.0% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 units in August, exceeding expectations. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected August sales of 615,000. The median sales price of a new home rose 0.4% (-5.8% y/y) to $393,700 in August, the first m/m rise since April.
Haver
September 25, 2026
New orders for durable goods were virtually unchanged m/m (8.5% y/y) in August at $338.6 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% m/m August decline. Core capital goods orders advanced 1.6% (14.1% y/y), the sixth m/m gain in seven months.
Bloomberg Economics
September 23, 2026
Our view is that the ECB will hike again in December, bringing the deposit rate to 2.75%. That would push borrowing costs into mildly restrictive territory. Beyond that, we think additional tightening is difficult to reconcile with a softer labor market and the lack of clear evidence that the energy shock is feeding through into broader underlying inflation.
Commerzbank
September 24, 2026
We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5% amid persistent K-shaped economy. Fiscal expansion will underpin our baseline forecast. General government expenditure lagged revenue earlier this year, exacerbating the Q2 slowdown. To reverse this momentum loss, Chinese authorities will accelerate public investment. The near-term macroeconomic priority has shifted entirely to the execution of existing budget obligations.
Financial Times
September 22, 2026
The yen carry trade may exceed $2T as investors and Japanese companies borrow cheaply in yen to fund higher-yielding assets abroad, deepening its links to global markets. With the BOJ raising rates to 1.25% and the yen strengthening, the risk of a disorderly unwind is increasing, potentially forcing leveraged positions to be cut across bonds, equities and currencies.
Barron’s
September 28, 2026
Emerging data show that companies leveraging AI the most are implementing fewer layoffs, not more. And new research suggests that AI is actually creating new roles. The World Economic Forum projects that 92 million jobs will be displaced because of technological and economic shifts by 2030. But there will be 170 million new ones, resulting in a net addition of 78 million jobs.
Bloomberg
September 24, 2026
Over the last week, Fed speakers were broadly aligned in signaling the inflation fight is not over and that additional rate increases remain on the table. The key debate is not whether to tighten further, but how much — with most officials framing any additional moves as modest and data-dependent. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said market expectations for another interest-rate hike by the end of the year is a “reasonable way of thinking about it.”
Commerzbank
September 24, 2026
The U.S. economy has weathered the effects of the war with Iran well, likely in part because the AI boom is fueling investment. We continue to expect growth of 2.4% for 2026 and 2.3% for next year. U.S. inflation is stagnating at a level well above the 2% target and is not expected to fall noticeably until spring. We have revised our forecast and now anticipate another rate hike by the end of the year and only one rate cut at the end of 2027.
MarketWatch
September 23, 2026
Social Security will be insolvent by mid-2032, triggering a 26% benefit cut, which will rise to 40% by the end of the century, according to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO’s projected cuts are deeper than the 22% benefit reduction forecast by the Social Security Trustees in June. The cuts will be automatic unless Congress acts.