10 Things You Need to Know: September 24, 2024
Key data releases this week include: FHFA Housing Price Index (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), new home sales (Wed), Q2 GDP revision (Thu), durable goods orders (Thu), pending home sales (Thu), personal income and spending (Fri), PCE Deflator (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
September 17, 2024
Total retail sales edged up 0.1% m/m in August after a 1.1% gain in July. The August m/m increase was the third in four months. A 0.2% m/m August decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) in August.
Haver
September 19, 2024
Sales of existing homes fell 2.5% m/m (-4.2% y/y) in August to 3.86 million units at an annual rate. This was the second lowest level of sales since October 2010. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected August sales of 3.90 million units. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) eased 1.1% m/m in August (+3.1% y/y) to $416,700, its second consecutive monthly decline.
Haver
September 19, 2024
The Conference Board’s Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators eased 0.2% (-5.0% y/y) during August, following an unrevised 0.6% July decline. A 0.3% decline in the August index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Capital Economics
September 19, 2024
An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s slowdown is likely to continue over the coming years as export growth moderates and construction activity drops back to more sustainable levels. We expect growth to fall to just 2% by the end of this decade.
Capital Economics
September 20, 2024
With the BOJ signaling that it’s in no rush to tighten monetary policy any further, we are pushing back our forecast for a final rate hike to 0.5% from October to December.
Capital Economics
September 18, 2024
India’s economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI inflation is likely to remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, setting the stage for the RBI to begin loosening monetary policy from December.
Barron’s
September 23, 2024
Based on the so-called dot plot, Fed officials don’t seem too eager to deliver more half-percentage-point cuts. The consensus view leaned toward two additional, 25-basis-point cuts at the November and December meetings, and four more quarter-percentage-point cuts next year.
Barron’s
September 23, 2024
Professor Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University has found that just 86 stocks accounted for half of the total stock market wealth creation over the 90-year period since 1926. Meanwhile, less than half of the stocks in the universe generated any returns for investors, and only 42% earned more than risk-free Treasuries over the entire period. Put another way, less than 4% of the thousands of stocks in this universe accounted for virtually all of the market gains.
Oxford Economics
September 20, 2024
The two payroll reports before the next policy meeting in early November could pave the way for a second consecutive half of a percentage point cut. Meanwhile, our latest recession monitor shows the odds of a recession in the next three-six months have risen but remain significantly below their historical thresholds. That is in contrast to the more downbeat signal from traditional recession indicators, which for the past few years has been at levels consistent with a recession.