10 Things You Need to Know: September 22, 2026
Key data releases this week include: new home sales (Thu), durable goods orders (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
September 16, 2026
Total retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) to $773.9 billion in August, the sixth monthly gain in seven months. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rebounded 1.4% (5.6% y/y) in August.
Bloomberg
September 17, 2026
New US residential construction declined unexpectedly in August to one of the weakest paces since the pandemic, reflecting a plunge in starts of multifamily projects. Housing starts decreased 2.6% to an annualized rate of 1.28 million. Building permits dropped 2.7%. Meanwhile, an index of pending home sales increased 0.3% to 71.2 last month, rising for the first time since May.
FT
September 15, 2026
The European Central Bank’s staff committee has urged the leadership to clarify whether President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel will leave before their terms end. The committee warns that prolonged uncertainty could undermine trust in the institution. Lagarde is rumored to be the preferred candidate for the World Economic Forum’s next chair. Lagarde reiterated that she’ll depart as European Central Bank president in 2027.
Bloomberg Economics
September 21, 2026
Beyond public finances, renewed pressure on financing conditions in France adds downside risk to the growth outlook after an already difficult start to the year. We expect France to grow 0.5% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027 as economic-policy uncertainty weighs. But risks have now tilted further to the downside. A further widening of the spread to 125 bps through year-end would bring France closer to an economic contraction.
Bloomberg Economics
September 15, 2026
China’s industrial production expanded 5.2% year on year, accelerating from 4.5% in July. Retail sales growth unexpectedly slowed to 0.4% year on year from 0.6%. The contraction in fixed asset investment widened to a 7.2% drop in the eight months through August. Taking in data up to August, our monthly GDP tracker puts 3Q growth at 4.5%, implying an expansion of 4.6% in the first three quarters of the year. That is within the official target range of 4.5%-5%.
Bloomberg
September 18, 2026
China’s nationwide property sales by floor space fell at a double-digit pace for a fourth straight month, dropping 14.7% year on year in August. Real estate investment tumbled 25.4% year on year in August, easing slightly from a 27.5% drop in July. The decline in new building starts deepened to 31.0% from 27.8% the previous month, the steepest drop since end-2022.
Barron’s
September 21, 2026
For many investors who’ve favored equities over bonds, now may be the time to consider munis because a tax-advantaged 5% rate could stack up well versus stocks in the coming years. Tax-equivalent yields on long-term munis with 30-year maturities are 8% to 10%, depending on the tax rates in states where investors reside.
Keith Lerner, Truist/ Barron’s
September 21, 2026
“Since the start of the modern Fed era in 1994, the S&P 500 declined during the one- and three-month periods following the first interest-rate hike in five of six completed cycles. However, performance improved as the time horizon expanded. Stocks were higher 12 months later in five of the six cycles, with an average gain of 9%. An initial Fed hike doesn’t typically mark the end of a bull market.”
Bloomberg Economics
September 16, 2026
The FOMC’s unanimous decision to hike rates by 25 basis points put an end to a two- year cutting cycle. We think the economic trade-off from this hike – and any more to come – is poor. Hiking rates won’t do much to reduce supply-driven inflation shocks, while it poses greater risks to financial conditions and the labor market. In contrast to the dot plot, we still expect September’s rate hike to be the only one this year.