10 Things You Need to Know: September 16, 2025
Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Tue), Import Price Index (Tue), industrial production (Tue), NAHB Housing Market Index (Tue), housing starts (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), and leading economic indicators (Thu).
Haver
September 10, 2025
The Producer Price Index fell 0.1% (+2.6% y/y) during August after rising 0.7% in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% increase. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y). The PPI excluding food & energy eased 0.1% (+2.8% y/y).
Haver
September 11, 2025
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% (2.9% y/y) in August after rising 0.2% in July. The increase outpaced the 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.3% (3.1% y/y) last month after a 0.3% July.
The Wall Street Journal
September 9, 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised nonfarm payrolls downward by 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025, the largest revision since records began in 2002. The revision suggests average monthly job growth was 76,000 lower than initially reported, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought. Economists say the revision could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest-rate cuts.
CNBC, Financial Times
September 10, 2025, September 9, 2025
US President Donald Trump asked the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India over their purchases of Russian oil, pledging the US would mirror such measures. The move follows Washington’s frustration over stalled peace efforts with Moscow and rising trade tensions. India blasted US tariffs on its exports as “unfair,” while China has so far avoided new secondary tariffs after striking a partial truce with Washington.
NDTV, The Times of India
September 12, 2025
Sergio Gor, US ambassador nominee to India, has expressed confidence in resolving trade disputes between the US and India, emphasizing the importance of pulling India away from China. Gor highlighted the need for India to stop buying Russian oil and expressed hope for a significant trade deal to boost bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.
Barron’s
September 15, 2025
Grocery prices, as measured by the food-at-home subindex of the CPI, rose 0.6% in August, the largest monthly increase in nearly three years. Costs were up in every grocery-store food group tracked in the CPI, and there is little reason to expect that the forces driving prices higher will abate soon. Besides tariffs, food costs are also climbing because of labor shortages, elevated transportation expenses, and weather events that disrupt harvests and livestock production.
Bloomberg, Financial Times
September 14, 2025, September 15, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s policy committee meets this week against a backdrop of mixed economic signals and political uncertainty. Markets widely expect a quarter-point rate cut, though some officials may advocate for deeper easing amid weak jobs data and low inflation. The session will also likely confirm Stephen Miran to the Fed board and release updated economic projections.
Capital Economics
September 12, 2025
We continue to think that money markets are overestimating the pace and extent of FOMC cuts, and that the committee will push back a bit against the current pricing next week. As such, our base case remains that US interest rate expectations and the dollar will rebound a bit in the coming months.
The Hill, Bloomberg
September 11, 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has increased its reliance on different cell imputations to fill gaps in the Consumer Price Index, with 36% of imputed prices in August using this method, up from 9% in February. The technique uses price data from other locations when local data is unavailable, raising concerns about accuracy.