10 Things You Need to Know: October 7, 2025
Haver
September 30, 2025
U.S. house prices slipped 0.1% (+2.3% y/y) during July after unrevised declines of 0.2% in June and 0.1% in May. The annual increase is well below its recent high of 7.1% in February 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.
Haver
September 30, 2025
Job openings edged up 19,000 (+0.3% m/m, -5.5% y/y) to 7.227 million in August from an upwardly revised 7.208 million in July. The job openings rate was unchanged at 4.3%, tying its lowest value since June 2020 and well below its record of 7.4% reached in March 2022.
Haver
October 1, 2025
The index of manufacturing activity published by the Institute for Supply Management rose 0.4 percentage point in September to 49.1%. The production and employment components accounted for most of the advance in the headline index. The prices index fell 1.8 percentage points in September, marking the fourth decline in the past five months.
Haver
October 1, 2025
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls fell last month by 32,000 (+0.9% y/y) after weakening by 3,000 in August, revised from a 54,000 increase. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 50,000 increase in September.
Haver
October 3, 2025
The Services PMI fell to 50.0 during September after rising to 52.0 in August, following a decline to 50.1 in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index has trended lower since February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.9 in September. The prices index edged higher to 69.4 in September after easing to 69.2 from 69.9 in July.
Bloomberg
October 2, 2025
European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau has urged policymakers to strengthen the international role of the euro amid global uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies. Villeroy suggests increasing the issuance of safe assets and exploring various avenues to develop euro-denominated safe assets.
Bloomberg
October 3, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next round of trade talks with China, even as the Trump administration takes steps to support American farmers hurt by a decline in Chinese purchases of soybeans. “The most important thing we’re going to see” is a pull- aside meeting of Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at a regional summit in South Korea scheduled for late October, Bessent said.
Barron’s
October 6, 2025
The S&P 500 pays 1.1%, the lowest since the dotcom bubble a quarter-century ago. That is owed to swelling stock valuations and corporate cash hoarding. Dividends were just 36% of profits last year, 20 points below their average since 1926. Since 1960, reinvested dividends have contributed some 85% of the S&P 500’s cumulative return. In the 2010s, they made up only 17% of returns, and so far in the 2020s, just 12%.
The New York Times, CNBC
October 1, 2025
The US government shutdown is strengthening expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets fully pricing in an October move and giving an 88% chance of another in December. Analysts say data delays and risks to the labor market from 750,000 furloughs make it more likely Chair Jerome Powell will push for further easing, even as inflation pressures from tariffs remain a concern.
Capital Economics
October 1, 2025
Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with essential services continuing to operate and furloughed federal workers eventually receiving back pay. What sets this shutdown apart is the threat of permanent layoffs for non-essential federal staff, which could prolong the drag on public sector payrolls.