10 Things You Need to Know: October 28, 2025

Bloomberg Economics

October 24, 2025

Based on the latest available data from the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims are estimated to have increased to 227k in the week ended Oct. 18 — still low by historical standards. There were approximately 1935k continued claims in the week ended Oct. 11, up from 1920k the week prior. The raw data aren’t seasonally adjusted.

Haver

October 23, 2025

Existing home sales rose 1.5% (4.1% y/y) to 4.06 million (SAAR) in September after easing 0.2% in August. It was the highest level of sales since February and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) in September declined 1.7% (+2.1% y/y) to $415,200.

Haver

October 24, 2025

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (3.0% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August. The increase fell short of the 0.4% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y) in September after 0.3% gains in both August and July. A 0.3% increase was expected.

Bloomberg

October 24, 2025

The final October sentiment index fell to 53.6 from 55.1 in September, a deterioration from the preliminary reading, according to the University of Michigan. Its measure of current conditions dropped to the lowest since August 2022. Consumers expect prices to rise 3.9% over the next five to 10 years. Respondents expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.6% over the next year.

France 24, Reuters

October 27, 2025

The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at 2% this week, as policymakers await more data on the impact of renewed US-China trade tensions. Inflation rose to 2.2% in September, but the ECB projects it will fall to 1.7% next year.

Bloomberg

October 27, 2025

The US is extending a deadline to reach a trade deal with Mexico for several weeks, President Claudia Sheinbaum said, in what would be the latest reprieve Donald Trump has granted his neighbor from punishing tariffs. Sheinbaum and Trump spoke briefly Saturday and agreed to extend talks to give the nations more time to reach a deal on non-tariff trade barriers that are still under discussion. She added that they are close to a deal.

Bloomberg

October 20, 2025

India is set to overtake Germany as the world’s third-largest economy, while Japan will fall out of the top five as the UK edges up. Despite tariff headwinds, India’s growth for 2025 was revised up to 6.6%. Across the rankings, emerging markets are on the rise — with the Philippines, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia all climbing fast.

Bloomberg

October 26, 2025

Treasury traders are all but certain the Federal Reserve will deliver another quarter-point cut this week, shifting focus to what policymakers signal about the path ahead. With the government shutdown halting key data releases, investors will parse Fed communications for clues on how officials are balancing still-elevated inflation against signs of labor-market softening.

Reuters, Bloomberg

October 27, 2025

Current Federal Reserve board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder have been confirmed as the five finalists to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump said he expects to make a nominee decision by the end of the year.

Financial Times

October 27, 2025

The US is projected to surpass Italy and Greece in government debt as a percentage of GDP by 2030, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting US debt to reach 143.4% of GDP. While Italy and Greece are expected to reduce their debt levels, the US debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, driven by persistent budget deficits.