10 Things You Need to Know: October 21, 2025
Haver
October 14, 2025
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2 points (-2.0% m/m, +8.0% y/y) to 98.8 in September from 100.8 in August. This was the first monthly decline in three months. Market expectations were for a smaller decline to 100.5. Still, the index remained above the survey’s 52-year average. Five of the indexes 10 components fell while two increased and three were unchanged.
CNBC, Barron’s
October 15, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reports that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have pushed inflation higher, with companies either absorbing costs or passing them on to consumers. The report notes that while some firms have kept prices stable to remain competitive, others have fully transferred higher import costs to customers. The Beige Book also highlights that economic growth has remained largely unchanged, and labor markets are stable.
Haver
October 13, 2025
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week, according to analyses of unadjusted state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown. Initial claims decreased to about 215,000 in the week ended Oct. 11 from an estimated 234,000 in the prior week. Goldman Sachs Group economists estimate initial jobless claims totaled about 217,000 last week.
Bloomberg
October 17, 2025
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week, according to analyses of unadjusted state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown. Initial claims decreased to about 215,000 in the week ended Oct. 11 from an estimated 234,000 in the prior week. Goldman Sachs Group economists estimate initial jobless claims totaled about 217,000 last week.
Reuters
October 17, 2025
Sanae Takaichi is expected to become Japan’s next prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, but her path is complicated by political instability. While Takaichi’s leadership could enable expansionary fiscal policies, her weakened political standing and resistance from party veterans now pose significant challenges to her ability to push through her economic agenda.
Bloomberg
October 20, 2025
South Korea’s top policy chief said the country made “substantial progress” on most key issues in tariff talks with the US, following a weekend of meetings. The two countries reached broad agreement on many issues, though several points still require further negotiation, Kim Yong-beom, the presidential policy chief said.
Barron’s
October 20, 2025
Previous stock market crashes were preceded by tight Fed policies. But the central bank began lowering its short-term interest rate target more than a year ago, for a total of 1.25%. By contrast, in 1928 and 1929, the Fed was raising rates, largely to rein in rampant speculation. Ahead of the dotcom bust, the central bank hiked its federal-funds rate target nearly two percentage points. And before the financial crisis, the Fed raised the funds rate target to 4.25%.
Barron’s
October 20, 2025
History suggests that gold’s extraordinary run has more legs, according to SentimenTrader. The firm notes that when gold has set as many new highs as it has in a three-month period, it has typically been higher one year later, 80% of the time. Runs like this are “exceptionally rare, with precedents seen only during some of gold’s most powerful historical advances,” it writes. So if there is a dip, investors shouldn’t feel blue but embrace the yellow metal.
Other Voices, Barron’s
October 20, 2025
Inflation is no longer a clear signal. The outlook for prices depends on a complex mix of monetary policy, money supply, tariffs, currency movements, immigration, housing supply, deregulation, government spending, and productivity. The combined effect is nearly impossible to predict.
WSJ, Reuters
October 14, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank could be nearing the end of its efforts to shrink its balance sheet. “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level that we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” Powell said. In addition, Powell pointed to downside risks in the labor market.