10 Things You Need to Know: October 20, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NAHB Housing Market Index (Mon), housing starts (Tue), pending home sales (Tue), leading economic indicators (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Bloomberg
October 13, 2026
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 point in September to 97.9. Higher diesel and transportation costs, more expensive materials and elevated borrowing rates are making it more difficult for small businesses to expand. Still, the deterioration in sentiment has yet to translate into a significant weakening in demand, with sales expectations improving.
Haver
October 13, 2026
Existing home sales rose 1.5% m/m (-2.2% y/y) to 3.99 million units (SAAR) in September, the first monthly increase since May. Sales were 39.5% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The median price of all existing homes fell 2.4% (+1.3% y/y) to $417,500 in September. Inventories of homes for sale advanced to the highest level since November 2019.
MT Newswires, Haver
October 15, 2026, October 14, 2026
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month-over-month (3.7% y/y) in September. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y). Shelter is a key reason why core CPI inflation isn’t back in line with the Fed’s target rate. Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index rose by 1.3% (6.3% y/y) core PPI increased by 0.7% (5.0% y/y).
Haver
October 15, 2026
Total retail sales rose 0.8% m/m (6.3% y/y) to $745.02 billion in September, the seventh m/m rise in eight months. A 0.3% m/m September increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, ticked up 0.1% (4.7% y/y).
Bloomberg Economics
October 14, 2026
The lates Beige Book showed evidence of AI-related productivity gains continued to build. Five districts reported that some firms had reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring or anticipated less job creation after improving productivity via AI and automation. Consumer spending remained uneven, disproportionately supported by higher-income households.
Barron’s
October 19, 2026
The biggest near-term danger to the AI boom isn’t demand; it’s capital and politics. There is growing local political opposition to data centers, one of the few issues that can cross party lines in the U.S. Data centers have already been canceled, delayed, or downsized, and state and local regulation may follow.
Barron’s
October 19, 2026
The S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 29.0% for the third quarter—the third straight period of 25%-plus growth. This quarter marks the highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2006. Net profit margins are projected to expand by nearly two percentage points from Q3 2025.
The Wall Street Journal
October 16, 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal whether policymakers will raise rates at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, saying the central bank will no longer preview decisions after lifting the policy range to 3.75%-4% in September. Futures markets have priced slightly more than a one-in-four chance of another increase. Warsh said the economy remained strong.
Commerzbank
October 13, 2026
The U.S. economy has weathered the effects of the war in Iran well, likely in part because the AI boom is fueling investment. We continue to expect growth of 2.4% for 2026 and 2.3% for next year. U.S. inflation is not expected to fall noticeably until spring. The Federal Reserve has since responded to inflation risks by raising its key interest rates by 25 basis points. We anticipate another rate hike toward the end of the year and only one rate cut at the end of 2027.