10 Things You Need to Know: November 4, 2025
Haver
November 3, 2025
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI declined to 48.7 in October after rising to 49.1 during September. The figure continues to indicate that the U.S. manufacturing sector weakened for the eighth consecutive month. A November index of 49.4 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The prices index weakened to 58.0 (NSA) during October from 61.9 in September.
Haver
October 29, 2025
The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) remained unchanged last month (-0.9% y/y) at 74.8 following a 4.2% August increase. So far in 2025 sales have risen 1.1%, but the index remained 40.2% below its most recent peak of 125.1 in October 2021.
Haver
October 28, 2025
Consumer Confidence fell 1.0% during October (-13.7% y/y) to 94.6. A level of 93.6 had been expected this month in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months edged higher to 5.9% in October from 5.8% in September.
Haver
October 28, 2025
U.S. house prices were up 0.4% m/m in August after virtually unchanged in July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. since a 0.1% uptick in March. The August HPI at 435.26 was the highest level in five months and 13.0% above a low of 385.24 in August 2022. The year-on-year rate of increase slowed to 2.3% in August from 2.4% in July.
Bloomberg Economics
October 31, 2025
Based on the latest available data from the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims decreased to 218k in the week ended Oct. 25. There were approximately 1950k continued claims in the week ended Oct. 18. The raw data aren’t seasonally adjusted, and don’t include figures for Arizona, Massachusetts, Washington, DC and the Virgin Islands.
Barron’s
November 3, 2025
The Supreme Court is considering the legality of the IEEPA tariffs and will hear oral arguments on Wednesday. If the tariffs are struck down, J.P. Morgan estimates $100 billion of tariff revenue could be eligible for refunds, though it estimates actual refund payments would be less and a smaller drain of the Treasury’s cash.
Barron’s
November 3, 2025
Third-quarter earnings season has proved to be strong so far, with almost two-thirds of S&P 500 index companies having reported. More than 80% have beaten EPS estimates, while nearly 80% have surpassed sales expectations. This week another 132 S&P 500 companies report.
Barron’s
November 3, 2025
The hiring freeze that has plagued much of the labor market in recent months may be easing, although the recovery is “tepid,” says ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. She cautioned that recent hiring patterns have been volatile week to week.
WSJ, Reuters
October 31, 2025
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid have expressed reservations about another interest rate cut in December. The officials’ comments highlight a divide within FOMC, with some members prioritizing labor market support and others focusing on inflation.
Reuters
October 31, 2025
Banks borrowed a record $50.35 billion from the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility on Friday amid month-end funding strains, marking the tool’s biggest use since its 2021 debut. The surge came as short-term rates spiked above the 4% upper bound of the fed funds range, just days after Chair Jerome Powell confirmed quantitative tightening will end Dec. 1.