10 Things You Need to Know: December 3, 2024
Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), ISM Services (Wed), factory orders (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), consumer credit (Fri), consumer sentiment (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Bloomberg
December 2, 2024
US manufacturing activity shrank in November by less than forecast as a gauge of new orders moved into expansion territory for the first time in eight months and indicated business confidence is gradually improving. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory gauge rose 1.9 points, the most since March, to 48.4. The median projection in a survey of economists was 47.5.
Haver
November 26, 2024
House prices increased 0.7% during September, as measured by the FHFA House Price Index. The gain followed a 0.4% rise in the August reading. The 4.4% y/y increase was steady but reduced from the recent high of 7.3% in February. It was below the peak 18.9% rate of gain in July 2013.
Haver
November 27, 2024
Real GDP growth of 2.8% (SAAR) last quarter was unrevised. It followed a 3.0% gain in the second quarter and 1.6% growth in Q1. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the latest four quarters eased to 2.7%.
Haver
November 27, 2024
The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contract signings, rose 2.0% (5.4% y/y) to 77.4 in October. The gain came after a 7.5% September rise and a 0.6% August increase, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Haver
November 27, 2024
The PCE chain price index rose 0.2% in October, following an unrevised 0.2% rise in September. The y/y rise was 2.3%, up from 2.1% in September. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% last month. The y/y rise was 2.8% in October.
Euronews, Politico
December 2, 2024
The French government faces a potential no-confidence vote as the National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, demands changes to the 2025 budget, including indexing pensions to inflation. Finance Minister Antoine Armand has rejected these demands, stating that the government will not be blackmailed. The political tension has affected financial markets, with French bond yields rising and the euro slipping.
Financial Times, Reuters
December 2, 2024
US President-elect Donald Trump has warned BRICS nations against creating a currency to rival the US dollar, threatening 100% tariffs if they proceed. “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty US Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US Economy,” Trump said.
Barron’s
December 2, 2024
AI training techniques may be hitting certain limits. The most likely reason is a lack of good data to train models with, according to Thomas Wolf, chief science officer at Hugging Face, a marketplace for AI models. “We’ve already exhausted the internet as a source of training data a few months ago,” Wolf said. “There’s only so much high-quality text, code, and images out there.”
Bloomberg
December 2, 2024
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s undecided on whether an interest-rate cut is needed this month, but still believes officials should continue lowering rates over the coming months. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’s inclined to vote for another reduction in interest rates when officials meet later this month.