10 Things You Need to Know: November 25, 2025
Haver
November 20, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased 119,000 in September after falling 4,000 in August and rising 72,000 during July. Expectations were for a 45,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% in August. Average hourly earnings improved 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August.
Haver
November 18, 2025
The Housing Market Index, compiled by the National Association of Home Builders, rose 2.7% (-17.4% y/y) to 38 in November after surging 15.6% in October. The latest reading was the highest since April but remained below the break-even point of 50, where it’s been since May of last year. The index also remains under a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.
Haver
November 19, 2025
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $59.6 billion in August from $78.1 billion in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a deficit of $60.5 billion. Even with the July surge, the sharp narrowing of the real deficit in August puts the trade balance on course to be relatively neutral for Q3 real GDP growth after contributing nearly 5%-points in Q2.
Haver
November 20, 2025
Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose 1.2% in October to an annual rate of 4.1 million, according to National Association of Realtors. Economists expected a rate of 4.08 million. The median sales price increased 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200.
Bloomberg Economics
November 24, 2025
The sharp deceleration in negotiated wage growth may exaggerate the underlying trend because the fall was probably driven by one-off payments. Wage growth dropped precipitously to 1.9% year over year in 3Q25 from 4.0% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, the broader picture still suggests pay increases are moving toward a pace that’s consistent with the European Central Bank’s 2% inflation target, suggesting its battle against rapid price increases has largely been won.
Capital Economics
November 21, 2025
Policymakers are mulling a new property stimulus package, including mortgage subsidies for new homebuyers. But this is unlikely to revive demand, as most households remain reluctant to buy in a falling market. China’s 10-year bond yield dropped below Japan’s for the first time since China’s bond pricing was liberalized in the mid-1990s. We expect it to decline further as deflation persists and the PBOC steps up bond purchases alongside wider monetary easing.
Barron’s
November 24, 2025
This is the fifth year of inflation exceeding the 2% target and that the Fed has said it would exceed that for at least another two years.
Barron’s
November 24, 2025
From 1973 through the end of last year, companies that grew or initiated dividends returned an average of 10.2% a year, versus 4.3% for nonpayers and negative returns for dividend cutters and quitters. Since 1960, dividends have contributed 85% of the S&P 500’s total returns, such is the long-term power of compounding.
Barron’s
November 24, 2025
Intervention would involve selling dollars, which means the Bank of Japan unloading some of its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. This, in effect, would tighten dollar liquidity and reverse the process of injecting funds into the global system. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama Friday took the unusual step of warning of possible intervention, which stabilized the yen for now.
Capital Economics
November 21, 2025
FOMC Vice Chair John Williams caused quite a stir on Friday when he revealed that he favored another “near-term” cut. According to our arithmetic, that’s four ayes in favor of a December rate cut and six nays against but, to the extent that Williams and Powell often hold the same view (and Lisa Cook usually votes with Powell), we could have an unprecedented six-six tie.