10 Things You Need to Know: November 21, 2023
Key data releases this week include: leading economic indicators (Mon), existing home sales (Tue), FOMC meeting minutes (Tue), durable goods orders (Wed), and consumer sentiment (Wed).
Haver
November 14, 2023
The Consumer Price Index remained unchanged in October following a 0.4% September increase. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.2% y/y rise remained below the peak 9.1% increase in June of last year. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% last month. The 4.0% y/y increase stood below the peak 6.6% gain in September 2022.
Haver
November 15, 2023
The Producer Price Index for final demand unexpectedly fell 0.5% m/m (+1.3% y/y) in October following a 0.4% monthly gain in September. A 0.1% rise had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food and energy prices was unchanged m/m (+2.4% y/y) in October following a 0.2% monthly increase in September. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
Haver
November 17, 2023
Despite the recent surge in mortgage rates, total housing starts rose 1.9% (-4.2% y/y) during October to 1.372 million (SAAR) after increasing 3.1% in September to 1.346 million, revised from 1.358 million.Starts were 23.9% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.347 million starts in October.
Financial Times, CNBC
November 15, 2023, November 15, 2023
Japan’s economy saw a significant contraction in the third quarter, with a 2.1% annualized decrease, primarily due to reduced consumer and business spending. The decline poses challenges for the Bank of Japan as it navigates the complexities of shifting away from its longstanding accommodative monetary policies.
Barron’s
November 20, 2023
Real personal-consumption expenditures are on track to rise 2.2% this year, according to FactSet estimates, below last year’s 2.5% growth rate and 8.4% growth in 2021. Yet relatively healthy household finances, a resilient labor market, and substantial housing wealth suggest that consumers still have plenty of firepower and that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession next year.
Barron’s
November 20,2023
Given falling birthrates, lower immigration, and the growing number of baby boomers entering retirement, many labor economists believe that tight employment conditions will persist. The BLS projects that total employment will grow only 0.3% annually over the next decade, far below the 1.2% annual growth rate recorded from 2012 to 2022.
Reuters
November 15, 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said while recent price numbers are “very, very encouraging,” policymakers should be careful not to prematurely declare victory in the fight against inflation. Daly cautioned about a “stop-start” approach to rate hikes and said officials should be “thoughtful, take our time, not rush to judgment and not make declarations.”
Oxford Economics
November 17, 2023
The claims data are consistent with a job market that is cooling enough to keep rate hikes off the table, but too strong to make rate cuts a consideration any time soon. The Fed is surely encouraged by recent inflation data but needs to see a further slowdown in the labor market and wage growth to be persuaded that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%. Meanwhile, we expect the economy to weaken quite a bit, but it does look like we’ll avoid an outright contraction.
Bloomberg
November 20, 2023
Consumers plan to spend an average of $567 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events, up 13% from last year, as they seek out the best deals while facing economic pressures such as higher prices and soaring interest rates. The result is a new record for Deloitte’s annual Black Friday-Cyber Monday survey. About 84% of shoppers feel confident enough to stick with the budgets they set in September.